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Daily Rate Lock Recommendation – 03/10/2010

March 10, 2010
By JessicaBennett

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for today’s Treasury auction. The stock markets are showing minor gains again with the Dow up 13 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning’s rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is being held today and could influence mortgage rates later. It is common to see some weakness ahead of these important sales as participants look to protect themselves against potential volatility. This is especially true when there is not a high expectation of a strong sale. However, if the sales are met with decent demand, it is also common to see the morning losses erased during afternoon trading.

Results of today’s auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand for the 10-year Notes was h igh, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, possibly improving mortgage rates this afternoon. But, is the sale was met with weak interest, selling in bonds could precede an increase to mortgage pricing. The results of recent sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally today. We also get to repeat the process tomorrow for the 30-year bond auction.

Tomorrow brings us the release of two relatively minor economic reports. January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance is the first. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and is expected to show a $41.0 billion deficit. It is the week’s least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much.

Also early tomorrow morning is the weekly release of unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 460,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, which would be a decline from the previous week. The larger the number, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, since it tracks only a week’s worth of new claims, it usually takes a wide variance between forecasts and the actual total for it to affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010

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7 Weeks Remain To Find A Home, Claim Up To $8,000 In Tax Credits

7 Weeks Remain To Find A Home, Claim Up To $8,000 In Tax Credits

In November, Congress extended and expanded the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit program to include a subset of “move-up” buyers — homeowners that have owned and lived in their home for 5 of the last 8 years.

The credit ranges up to $8,000 per buyer. There’s now just 7 weeks left to take advantage.

To be eligible, home buyers must be under contract for a new home no later than April 30, 2010, and must be closed no later than June 30, 2010.

In addition to meeting the deadline dates, there’s a basic set of requirements to be tax credit-eligible:

You can’t purchase the home from a parent, spouse, or child
You can’t purchase the home from an entity in which the seller is a majority owner
You can’t acquire the home by gift or inheritance
Each buyer in the purchase must meet eligibility requirements

There’s other criteria, too.

For one, the sales price on the subject property cannot exceed $800,000. Homes sold for more than $800,000 are ineligible for the tax credit. Furthermore, households earning more than $125,000 as single-filers, or $225,500 for joint-filers, are ineligible.

You can read the complete eligibility requirements at the IRS website, or, you may just find it simpler to speak with your accountant about it. There are some nuances in qualifying for and claiming the tax credit on your returns and getting a professional’s opinion is always wise.

And lastly, don’t forget that government’s tax credit program is a true tax credit. It’s not a tax deduction.  This means that a tax filer whose “normal” tax liability is $3,500 and who is eligible for $8,000 in credit will receive a $4,500 refund from the U.S. Treasury.

If you’re currently in the House Hunt, mark your calendar for April 30, 2010. It’s 7 weeks away and you can be sure that as the date gets closer, buyer traffic is going to increase.  You may find sellers more willing to negotiate today than several weeks from now.

Call CU Mortgage Division at (360) 539-4687 to obtain your FREE mortgage loan pre-approval or visit our website at www.cumortgagedivision.com .

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 8, 2010

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : March 8, 2010

Mortgage markets improved last week in low-volume trading.

Between Monday to Thursday, Wall Street focused on the upcoming jobs reports and mortgage markets gained while traders jockeyed for position. Mortgage rates drifted lower through Thursday afternoon. But, then, after a better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report Friday morning, mortgage markets — and mortgage rates — reversed.

Overall, mortgage rates dropped last week, but only by a small margin. Rates were best Thursday afternoon.

It was the second consecutive week in which mortgage rates fell.

Last week was also interesting in that both stock markets and bond markets improved, proving that rates don’t always rise when stock prices do. 455 of the S&P 500 companies posted gains last week.

If you’re shopping for a home or a refinance, though, don’t rest on your laurels. After Friday’s big sell-off, this week opens into a major headwind and, plus, the Federal Reserve’s support for mortgage markets ends in just 3 weeks.

This week, without much data to influence traders, the upward momentum in rates may have little cause to temper. We’ll see the Consumer Confidence numbers on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Friday.  Beyond that, there’s not much else.

After last week’s performance, conforming mortgage rates in Washington State may be poised to rise rather sharply. If you’re waiting for the right time to lock your rate, it may have been this past Thursday. Consider locking your rate early this week to protect against further rate hikes.

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Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring

Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring

Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages  — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.

Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.

Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.

But will they really?

Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010

In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Lacey and around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.

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Tying Friday’s Jobs Report To Rising Mortgage Rates

Tying Friday’s Jobs Report To Rising Mortgage Rates

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates in Washington State have improved over the last 10 days, but that could all change this Friday with the release of February’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government’s monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street will be watching it closely.

Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.

Jobs are an important part of the nation’s recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don’t spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.

When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.

Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds.  Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.

Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday’s mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you’re worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.

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