Mortgage Market News for the week ending June 4, 2010
Jobs Report Falls Short
The big economic news this week was Friday’s Employment data, which fell short of Wall Street forecasts and pushed mortgage rates lower. Investors continued to watch the situation in Europe, but there were no major market moving developments. Due to a rally on Friday, mortgage rates ended the week lower.
The May Employment report revealed the largest monthly increase in jobs since March 2000, but nearly all of the gains came from the hiring of temporary census workers. Without the census workers, the data fell short of expectations. A total of 431K jobs were added in May, below the consensus forecast of 500K. 411K jobs came from census hiring, leaving a net gain of just 20K jobs when those workers are excluded. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.7% from 9.9% in April, but this was mostly due to people dropping out of the labor force. Investors had expected stronger results from private sector job growth, and the stock market fell after the news. Weak labor market figures generally lead to lower inflation and are favorable for mortgage markets.
The news from the housing sector was more positive. April Pending Home Sales rose 6% from March, which was stronger than expected, to the highest level since October 2009. Pending sales are a leading indicator of future housing market activity. The April 30 expiration of the homebuyer tax credit likely pulled some pending sales forward which otherwise might have taken place later in the year. The benefits, though, of extremely low mortgage rates and very affordable home prices are in place to promote home buying activity even without the homebuyer tax credit.
Also Notable:
• The Construction sector lost 35K jobs in May
• Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased at a 1.9% annual rate
• The Treasury will auction $70 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
• The Fed’s Lockhart warned that the Fed may eventually need to raise rates to fight inflation even if unemployment remains high
Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week: +0.15%
This week: -0.10%
Stocks (weekly):
Dow: 10,000 -200
NASDAQ: 2,250 -25
Week Ahead
Next week, Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, will be released on Monday. The Fed’s Beige Book will come out on Wednesday. The Retail Sales report will be released on Friday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Consumer Sentiment and the Trade Balance will round out the schedule. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Call CU Mortgage Division at (360) 539-4687 or visit our website at www.cumortgagedivision.com for any first mortgage related questions.
