Daily Archives: July 9, 2010

Mortgage Market News for the week ending July 9, 2010

July 9, 2010
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Rates Remain Low

With very little economic news during the short holiday week, mortgage rates remained at the lowest levels in decades. While mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower, the level of volatility in mortgage markets and other financial markets was relatively high. Even without major news, sudden movements in rates were common during the week. The stock market displayed similar price swings, as the Dow recovered the roughly 400 points it lost the prior week. This volatility in financial markets reflects the high level of investor uncertainty about the pace of global economic growth.

The current low mortgage rates can be attributed to a couple of factors. One is that inflation is under control and is expected to remain low for quite a while. Another is that demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is high. When packaged and sold as government guaranteed MBS, mortgages are viewed as safe investments, much like US Treasury securities, and safety has been important to investors in these uncertain times. With financial regulatory reform behind them, Congress is now beginning to consider the appropriate role for the government in the housing market. Central issues include government guarantees for mortgages and the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The debate is expected to be long and difficult, with no easy answers.

 

 
 

Also Notable:

  • Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to the lowest level in two months
  • As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates
  • The Treasury will auction $69 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
  • The Fed’s Fisher suggested that the main economic challenge is building confidence
     
 

 

 
Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week: -0.05%  
This week: -0.02%  
Stocks (weekly):
Dow: 10,100 +400
NASDAQ: 2,175 +75

 

   Week Ahead

The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, The Retail Sales report will be released on Wednesday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. The detailed FOMC Minutes from the June 23 Fed meeting will also come out on Wednesday. Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic growth, is scheduled for Thursday. Empire State, Import Prices, Leading Indicators, the Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence, and Philly Fed will round out the week. There will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

 

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The Flawed Home Price Index Shows Home Values Up 0.8 Percent

July 9, 2010
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Monthly change in Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Olympia and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn’t mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won’t give it to you — you’ll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home’s attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

And, third, HPI doesn’t account for new home sales — only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It’s still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it’s been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can’t ignore that on any level.

It’s July and you may have missed the “rock bottom” Thurston County home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.