Weaker than expected economic data and continued low inflation helped mortgage rates move a little lower from last week. In recent weeks, investors have modified their consensus outlook to reflect weaker economic growth during the second half of the year. The manufacturing and retail sales data released during the week reinforced this view. Lending further support, the Fed revised its forecast for 2010 economic growth lower as well. Meanwhile, this week’s CPI and PPI data continued to show that inflation is not a concern in the short term. Uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery has made investors willing to purchase safer assets such as government guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at these relatively low yields.

Congress passed the comprehensive Financial Regulations bill and President Obama will sign it into law soon. The bill provides a framework for oversight of the financial services industry, and certain aspects of the bill will affect mortgage lending and the home buying process. The bill calls for various regulatory agencies, some of which will be newly created, to determine the details. Implementation of most of the new mortgage-related rules is expected to take 18 to 24 months to complete.

Today, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, “the economic recovery is proceeding” and that the jobs market “is improving gradually”. Business spending “has risen significantly”, too, with the exception of commercial real estate.

Today’s statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009.  Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.

The recession is widely believed to be over.

And, although the Fed’s statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.

1. Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
2. European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
3. Bank lending is contracting

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, citing that “inflation has trended lower” recently.

Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in Washington State are slightly improved post-FOMC.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.

The big economic news this week was Friday’s Employment data, which fell short of Wall Street forecasts and pushed mortgage rates lower. Investors continued to watch the situation in Europe, but there were no major market moving developments. Due to a rally on Friday, mortgage rates ended the week lower.
The May Employment report revealed the largest monthly increase in jobs since March 2000, but nearly all of the gains came from the hiring of temporary census workers. Without the census workers, the data fell short of expectations. A total of 431K jobs were added in May, below the consensus forecast of 500K. 411K jobs came from census hiring, leaving a net gain of just 20K jobs when those workers are excluded. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.7% from 9.9% in April, but this was mostly due to people dropping out of the labor force. Investors had expected stronger results from private sector job growth, and the stock market fell after the news. Weak labor market figures generally lead to lower inflation and are favorable for mortgage markets.
The news from the housing sector was more positive. April Pending Home Sales rose 6% from March, which was stronger than expected, to the highest level since October 2009. Pending sales are a leading indicator of future housing market activity. The April 30 expiration of the homebuyer tax credit likely pulled some pending sales forward which otherwise might have taken place later in the year. The benefits, though, of extremely low mortgage rates and very affordable home prices are in place to promote home buying activity even without the homebuyer tax credit.

Also Notable:
• The Construction sector lost 35K jobs in May
• Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased at a 1.9% annual rate
• The Treasury will auction $70 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
• The Fed’s Lockhart warned that the Fed may eventually need to raise rates to fight inflation even if unemployment remains high

Average 30 yr fixed rate:
Last week: +0.15%
This week: -0.10%

Stocks (weekly):
Dow: 10,000 -200
NASDAQ: 2,250 -25

Week Ahead
Next week, Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, will be released on Monday. The Fed’s Beige Book will come out on Wednesday. The Retail Sales report will be released on Friday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Consumer Sentiment and the Trade Balance will round out the schedule. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Call CU Mortgage Division at (360) 539-4687 or visit our website at www.cumortgagedivision.com for any first mortgage related questions.

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen” and that the jobs markets “is stabilizing”.  It also said that business spending has “has risen significantly”.

This is a slight departure from the Fed’s January statement in which housing was not mentioned and business spending was said to be “picking up”.

It’s also the sixth straight statement from the FOMC in which the Fed described the economy with optimism.  This is a signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning.

The economy is not without threats, however, and the Fed identified several:

1. High unemployment threatens consumer spending
2. Housing starts are at a “depressed level”
3. Consumer credit remains tight

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation is within tolerance limits

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to end its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010. Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program lowered mortgage rates by 1 percent since its start.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, ambivalent. Mortgage rates in Tumwater are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, April 27-28, 2010.

Mortgage markets had a terrible, holiday-shortened week last week as Wall Street responded to worse-than-expected inflation data and action from the Federal Reserve.  Mortgage bonds sold off with force, causing mortgage rates to rise for the second week in a row.

Last week was a bad week to float a mortgage, to say the least. Rates in Olympia rose by the largest margin in any week since late-2009.

The two biggest stories from last week both came from the Federal Reserve.  The first was the release of the FOMC January meeting minutes which showed more confidence in the U.S. economy than Wall Street expected, and the second was the Fed’s surprise announcement to raise the nation’s Discount Rate to 0.75%. Both sparked risk-taking on Wall Street and bonds sold-off as a result. 

Now, the Fed Funds Rate won’t climb anytime soon and neither will Prime Rate, but the Fed has sent a clear message to the markets — The Era of Loose Monetary Policy is over.

This week, there’s a lot of economic data set for release.

• Tuesday : Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday : New Home Sales
• Thursday : FHFA Home Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims
• Friday : Existing Home Sales, Personal Consumption Expenditures

With markets already on edge, any better-than-expected results should be bad for mortgage rates.

After last week’s performance, conforming mortgage rates for residents of Washington State have now unwound most their January gains.  If you’re waiting for the right time to lock, it may have been 2 weeks ago. Consider locking in this week to protect against any further deterioration in price.

Mortgage markets worsened last week on general profit-taking in the U.S. bond market, combined with talk of a coordinated rescue effort for Greece and its debt burden. Mortgage-backed bonds sold off, causing conventional and FHA mortgage rates to rise.

There wasn’t much hard data on which to trade last week, either, so momentum took markets farther than they otherwise might have moved on their own.  It marked the first time in 5 weeks that rates rose for Washington State rate shoppers.

This week, data returns. Expect mortgage market movement.

Some of the week’s more important releases include:

1. Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
2. The release of the last month’s FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
3. Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)

Inclement weather may have impacted last month’s Housing Starts reading so pay closer attention to Building Permits.  Permits precede actual construction and can be more indicative of economic optimism. If permit readings are strong, it should be a negative for mortgage rates.

The same is true for the FOMC Minutes. 

Last month’s FOMC post-meeting press-release was decidedly middle-of-the-road, but the statement is just a summary of the Fed’s 2-day meeting, boiled down to a few paragraphs.  Wednesday’s release of the FOMC Minutes will reveal the deeper discussions among members of the Fed.  Wall Street will mine it for clues about the future of the economy.

If Wall Street senses optimism coming from the Fed — again — mortgage rates should rise.

And, lastly, keep an eye on Thursday and Friday’s inflation data.  Inflation is bad for mortgage rates so a higher-than-expected reading should spark a bond market sell-off.

Since mid-December, mortgage rates have moved within a tight range and there’s little reason for rates will break this range this week. However, we are near the top of the channel. If you know you’re going to need a rate locked soon, it’s probably best to do early in the week.

Mortgage markets improved last week on domestic jobs data and international banking concerns. The news triggered buying in the bond market and, as a result, conventional, FHA and VA mortgage rates in Washington State improved for the 4th consecutive week.

Mortgage rates are now at a 6-week low but probably shouldn’t be.  It underscores just how important global events can be to U.S. mortgage markets.

For example, corporate earnings continue to improve and key elements of the economy are strengthening.  Even the Federal Reserve acknowledges this.  In most circumstances, that would be a boon for the stock markets and bond markets would suffer, including mortgage bonds.

Last week, that wasn’t the case.

Early in the week, as (1) China tightened its monetary policy, (2) Greece did little to quell lingering default fears, and (3) Spain raised its deficit forecasts, global investors sought to reduce their collective risk exposure. For safety of principal, many sold some of their more aggressive positions and moved the cash proceeds into the U.S. bond market — which includes mortgage bonds. 

On Wall Street, this type of trading pattern is called a “flight-to-quality”.  Because mortgage bonds are backed by U.S. government entities, the debt is considered to be ultra-safe.  Last week’s extra demand for bonds helped to push prices up and mortgage rates down.

And that was before Friday’s weak jobs report. Although the Unemployment Rate fell to 9.7%, the government reported a net loss of 98,000 jobs last month and this, too, helped mortgage rates tick lower.

This week, we’ll hope for momentum to continue.

There’s very little domestic news to move rates this week so keep an eye on the global market for similar stories like what we saw last week.  Or, if you’re not sure what to look for, just give me a call or send me an email and I’ll be happy to watch the markets and mortgage rates for you.

During the week, China released a report showing that its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an 8.7% pace in 2009. Rapid growth generally leads to higher inflation. In an effort to slow its economy and prevent inflation, China announced that it is going to curb bank lending. China currently has the third largest economy and is responsible for a significant percentage of global economic growth, so the effects of a slowdown in China will be felt around the world. In the US, President Obama proposed to limit the size and activities of large banks to reduce the risks to the financial system as a whole. If passed by Congress, this too would lead to slower growth for many large US financial services firms. The potential for slower economic growth and the resulting reduction in inflationary pressures was favorable for mortgage rates.

To build capital and reduce risk, the FHA announced that it will raise insurance rates and tighten credit score requirements. The major changes include increasing upfront premiums from 1.75% to 2.25%, reducing the maximum seller contribution from 6% to 3%, and increasing the level of FICO scores from 500 to 580 below which a down payment of 10% is required. At this point, the expected timing of the upfront premium increase will be in the spring, and the other changes will take place over the summer.

Mortgage markets showed little conviction last week, carving out just a narrow trading channel. There was very little data on which for markets to move, leaving mortgage rates momentum-bound.

Luckily for rate shoppers, mortgage rate momentum was favorable. Rates were slightly lower Monday through Thursday before breaking downward Friday afternoon. Home shoppers in Thurston County this past weekend caught a nice break.

Last week marked the second straight week in which mortgage rates fell.

This week, in holiday-shortened trading and with little economic data set for release, expect mortgage rates to again move on momentum. The biggest report of the week is Wednesday’s Producer Price Index.

Producer Price Index is important to mortgage rates because of its role in inflation.  PPI is akin to a Cost of Living-type measurement, but for business.  As business costs rise, the thought goes, it’s not long before consumer costs rise, too. Businesses eventually pass on costs, after all.

In this manner, a rising Producer Price Index can foreshadow rising consumer prices, and, therefore, inflation.

Inflation is awful for mortgage rates.

PPI expectations have revised downward this month, especially because last week’s data showed a deceleration in consumer prices nationwide. If PPI isn’t as weak as expected, mortgage rates will rise.

Other influential data this week includes Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence and Initial Jobless Claims.

So far, 2010 has been for mortgage rates in Washington and around the country. If you’re in need of a rate lock, this week may be a good time to take one. Call CU Mortgage Division for a custom tailored rate quote for your needs and to inquire on how to lock in your interest rate or obtain a Free Pre-Approval. Visit www.cumortgagedivision.com for more details.