Rates Remain Low

With very little economic news during the short holiday week, mortgage rates remained at the lowest levels in decades. While mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower, the level of volatility in mortgage markets and other financial markets was relatively high. Even without major news, sudden movements in rates were common during the week. The stock market displayed similar price swings, as the Dow recovered the roughly 400 points it lost the prior week. This volatility in financial markets reflects the high level of investor uncertainty about the pace of global economic growth.

The current low mortgage rates can be attributed to a couple of factors. One is that inflation is under control and is expected to remain low for quite a while. Another is that demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is high. When packaged and sold as government guaranteed MBS, mortgages are viewed as safe investments, much like US Treasury securities, and safety has been important to investors in these uncertain times. With financial regulatory reform behind them, Congress is now beginning to consider the appropriate role for the government in the housing market. Central issues include government guarantees for mortgages and the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The debate is expected to be long and difficult, with no easy answers.

Also Notable:

Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to the lowest level in two months
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in rates
The Treasury will auction $69 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr securities next week
The Fed’s Fisher suggested that the main economic challenge is building confidence

Average 30 yr fixed rate:

Last week:
-0.05%
 

This week:
-0.02%
 

Stocks (weekly):

Dow:
10,100
+400

NASDAQ:
2,175
+75

  
Week Ahead

The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, The Retail Sales report will be released on Wednesday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. The detailed FOMC Minutes from the June 23 Fed meeting will also come out on Wednesday. Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic growth, is scheduled for Thursday. Empire State, Import Prices, Leading Indicators, the Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence, and Philly Fed will round out the week. There will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

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Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Olympia and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn’t mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won’t give it to you — you’ll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home’s attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

And, third, HPI doesn’t account for new home sales — only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It’s still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it’s been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can’t ignore that on any level.

It’s July and you may have missed the “rock bottom” Thurston County home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.

Morning television can be “light”, but as far as personal finance interviews go, this Suze Orman segment from The Today Show is loaded with practical financial planning advice.

Titled “What Should You Do First?”, Ms. Orman addressed the real-life, money management conundrums households face, such as:

Should I pay off credit card bills, or create an emergency cash fund?
Should I pay off student loan debt, or pay off credit card bills?
Should I save for a child’s college tuition, or save for my retirement?

In 5 minutes, the segment covers a half-dozen scenarios like the ones above, explaining what to do, and why to do it.

Ms. Orman’s style may not interest you and financial advice is rarely universal, but the piece is worth watching.

Watch the clip on the NBC website.

In June, for the first time since December 2009, the U.S. workforce shrank.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy shed 125,000 jobs last month even as the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.5 percent. The drop in the Unemployment Rate is being attributed to fewer Americans looking for work.

At first glance, the jobs report looks weak but a deeper look shows something different.

Excluding the 225,000 government Census workers that recently left the workforce, the total number of employed persons actually grew by 83,000 in June. That’s 50,000 more working Americans as compared to May.

And, since the start of the year, the U.S. workforce has grown by 857,000.

Jobs growth is closely tied to economic growth because more working Americans means more disposable income which, in turn, stokes consumer spending. Job growth is better than job loss.

Consumer spending makes up the majority of the U.S. economy so as consumer spending grows, investor mentality tends to shifts toward “return on principal” (i.e. stock markets) from “safety of principal” (i.e. bond markets).

A move like this is often bad for home affordability because falling demand for bonds is tied to higher mortgage rates. In addition, with the growing number of Americans earning a paycheck, demand for homes is likely to increase, thereby helping to push home prices higher.

Overall, therefore, the jobs report should be bad for rate shoppers and home buyers in in Olympia. Except, the markets aren’t reacting that way. For now, mortgage rates are slightly improved since the jobs report’s release.

Perhaps Wall Street is watching the wrong figures, but don’t let that be your loss. If you’re shopping for a mortgage, a home, or both, now may be your best time to make a move; while rates are still low; with home prices down; before traders change their tune.

Because when markets change, it’ll likely happen fast.

Mortgage markets improved last week as economic data revealed a slowing U.S. economy.

Major stock indices fell to 2010 lows in response to a weak jobs report among other data points, forcing worldwide investors into the relative safety of U.S. government-backed bonds.  This category includes mortgage-backed bonds and the extra demand helped to drop rates.

Once again, mortgage rates improved in Washington State and Freddie Mac is reporting new all-time lows on three popular, conforming loan products:

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage
The 15-year fixed rate mortgage
The 5-year adjustable rate mortgage

Low rates mean low payments and you can’t know your options until you ask.

This week, mortgage rates may move slowly. There’s very little data set for release because markets were closed Monday in observance of Independence Day, and because the second calendar week of a month is traditionally data-slow.

Tuesday, a consumer confidence study is published; Thursday, jobless claims plus consumer credit levels hit; and, Friday, we’ll see wholesale inventories.  That’s about it.  None of these reports are particularly important but, in aggregate, the numbers can show whether the economy is expanding or contracting.

In general, evidence of an expanding economy should cause mortgage rates to rise.  In a contracting economy, rates are likely to fall.

Actual mortgage rates will vary by borrower, based on property type, credit score, and home equity, but if you haven’t talked to your loan officer about a refinance into today’s rates, it’s likely worth the time for a phone call.  Once mortgage rates start to reverse higher, they’re expected to reverse quickly.

You’ll want to act before that move occurs..