Posts Tagged ‘ Credit Union Mortgage Division ’

The Year Is Half-Over. How Did The Housing Experts Fare On Their Predictions?

July 1, 2010
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Housing and mortgage rate forecastsAs 2009 was ending, the “experts” were busy making forecasts about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2010.

With respect to the housing markets, two predictions were made again and again:

  1. Home prices would fall in the first half of 2010
  2. Mortgage rates would be higher in 2010

Well, it’s July 1 and the year is half-over.  Both predictions are proving to be incorrect. Home values are rising in most markets and mortgage rates are down. Way down. 

It reminds us that economists are much more skilled with analysis of the past versus predictions of the future.

A pile of data can only get you so far.

Think of Lacey housing market predictions like watching a local weather forecast. A meteorologist can look at the radar and tell you that rain is coming, but it’s never with 100% certainty.  There is always a chance of change.

The housing market is the same way.  Just as the U.S. economy is unpredictable, so are housing prices, and so are mortgage rates. 

Therefore, when you have a personal finance decision to make, evaluate your options based on the information at hand today rather than an educated guess about the future. The future, after all, is subject to change — despite what the experts forecast.

Buyers Take The May 2010 New Home Sales Data All The Way To The Bank

June 25, 2010
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New Home Supply May 2009 - May 2010

One month after the federal homebuyer tax credit’s official expiration, the New Home Sales report turned in its worst showing ever.

In May 2010, for the first time in 11 months, the inventory of unsold new homes crossed the 8-month marker, posting an 8.5 month supply overall.

Additionally, new homes sales volume fell to 300,000 units nationwide — a drop of 32% and its lowest level since the Commerce Department started tracking data in 1963.

Now, universally, the press is referring to the May New Home Sales report as “poor“.  A closer look, however, shows that may not be the case.

For one, we have to keep New Home Sales in perspective as a percentage of overall home sales. Yes, there were just 300,000 new homes sold in May, but there were also 5.66 million “existing” homes sold.

New Home Sales, therefore, accounted for just 5 percent of the total housing market — a very small percentage.

Another reason why the weak New Home Sales data isn’t so awful is that, when New Home Sales stall, it actually benefits home buyers.  Excess supply puts a strain on sellers which, in turn, gives buyers a tremendous amount of leverage in negotiation.

When home inventories are high, builders are more apt to appease their customers in hopes of making a sale.  For Olympia home buyers, this can result in buying a better product at a lower price.

Especially with builder confidence plummeting.

Since February 2009, housing has shown steady gains. There’s been both peaks and valleys across units, inventories, and prices, but overall, the market is improving.  May’s New Home Sales data shows how now may an opportune time to “buy new”.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement

June 23, 2010
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Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishToday, in its first meeting in 5 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Fund Rate remains within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since April, “the economic recovery is proceeding” and that the jobs market “is improving gradually”. Business spending “has risen significantly”, too, with the exception of commercial real estate.

Today’s statement is the 8th straight press release in which the Fed shows optimism for the U.S. economy, dating back to June 2009.  Since that time, the Fed has terminated all of the programs it created to support the economy through the economic crisis.

The recession is widely believed to be over.

And, although the Fed’s statement acknowledged economic growth, it did highlight lingering threats, too.

  1. Employers are still reluctant to hire new workers
  2. European debt concerns could spill-over to the U.S.
  3. Bank lending is contracting

Also, as expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”, citing that “inflation has trended lower” recently.

Mortgage market reaction has been positive thus far. Mortgage rates in Washington State are slightly improved post-FOMC.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is August 10, 2010.

May 2010 Existing Home Sales Is Better Than The Headline Data Suggests

June 23, 2010
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Existing Home Sales May 2009-May 2010Existing Home Sales dropped in May for the first time in 3 months but still managed to post its second-highest since November 2009, buoyed by the expiring federal tax credit program.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction; a resale of an existing home.  Existing Home Sales fell 2.2 percent in May.

The press is calling the drop in sales “unexpected” and disappointing, but a deeper look at the data shows the news isn’t as bad as it first appears.

First, on a regional basis, sales were mostly solid. Only the Northeast region posted a loss. The West even managed a gain.

  • Northeast : -18.3 percent
  • Midwest : 0.0 percent
  • South : +0.5 percent
  • West : +4.9 percent

Second, the supply of homes for sale dropped to 8.3 in May and, because home prices are based on supply and demand, this is a positive for pricing.

By comparison, in 2008, the average existing home inventory was 10.4 months.

And, lastly, in May, first-time home buyers represented 46 percent of all buyers. The number was likely buoyed by the tax credit program but that doesn’t damper the fact that first-time buyers provide a support floor for the housing market. 

First-time buyers in Tumwater enable “existing owners” to move-up to bigger homes, which, in turn, trickles up to the mid-size and jumbo markets.

Analysts expected more from May’s numbers and that may explain why the reaction to the data is generally negative.  However, in many cities, home resales did just fine.

Making A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of The Fed’s Meeting This Week

June 22, 2010
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Fed Funds Rate June 2007-June 2010The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day meeting today, its fourth scheduled meeting of the year, and fifth overall.

The FOMC is the monetary policy-setting part of the government and its primary tool for that purpose is the Fed Funds Rate. 

The Fed Funds Rate is the dictated rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, since December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the benchmark rate within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

This is the lowest Fed Funds Rate in history. A rate near zero-point-zero percent renders borrowing by business and consumers cheap which, in turn, promotes investment and growth.

There’s no expectation for the Fed to change the Fed Funds Rate after it adjourns tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean consumers in Lacey should expect mortgage rates to remain unchanged, too.

To the contrary, mortgage rates tend to be volatile when the FOMC is meeting.  This is because the FOMC issues a press release after each meeting and in that press release, it comments on the economy’s unique threats, strengths and weaknesses.

When the FOMC speaks, Wall Street listens. 

The words of the Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press release will be dissected and analyzed.  A single mention of higher-than-expected inflation levels, or better-than-expected growth, and traders will rush to dump their bond positions in favor of equities. 

This has a negative effect on mortgage rates.

Conversely, if the Fed is dour on the economy, mortgage rates may fall.

We can’t know for sure what the Fed will say or do tomorrow afternoon so if you’re floating a mortgage rate and wondering whether to lock, the safe choice is to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 21, 2010

June 21, 2010
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FOMC meets this weekMortgage markets improved last week on weaker-than-expected jobless figures, ongoing troubles in Europe, and a tame reading on domestic inflation.

As a result, conforming mortgage rates for Washington State fell last week, drawing loads of new refinance applications.

For a brief moment Thursday afternoon, mortgage bond prices pierced a key support level, dropping rates in Lacey to their best levels of the year. 

It didn’t last long, however. By Friday morning, pricing was worsening on profit-taking and in preparation for this week — a week that promises to be heavy on both data and rhetoric.

To mortgage markets, this can be a dangerous combination.

The biggest news of the week is the Federal Reserve’s 2-day meeting, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington D.C. 

The Fed is expected to hold the Fed Funds Rate in its target range near 0.000-0.250 percent. It won’t be what the Fed does at its meeting that will matter to rates, though. It will be what the Fed says — about jobs, about growth, about inflation — in its post-meeting press release.

Remarks that reflect well upon the economy should lead mortgage rates higher. Remarks viewed as negative should lead mortgage rates down.

There’s key data due for release next week, too:

  • Tuesday : Existing Home Sales and Home Price Index
  • Wednesday : New Home Sales
  • Thursday : Continuing Jobless Claims
  • Friday : GDP and Consumer Sentiment

Mortgage rates remained relatively tame last week.  This week, volatility should return.

If you’re shopping for a mortgage, rates remain very low but could reverse quickly. Your biggest risk is tied to the Fed’s adjournment Wednesday afternoon.

The Week Ahead – Rate Lock Recommendation – 06/20/2010

June 20, 2010
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This will likely prove to be a fairly active week in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are five economic reports scheduled for release, but in addition to the data another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held and another round of Treasury sales are on the calendar. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Tuesday brings us the first data with the release of May’s Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors will give us figures on home resales late Tuesday morning. This data helps us measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it usually takes a large variance from forecasts for it to cause a noticeable change to mortgage rates. It is expected to show an increase in sales from April to May.

Wednesday’s only report is the release of May’s New Home Sales. It is similar to Tuesday’s Existing Home Sales report, but tells us how well sales of newly constructed homes were last month. It is expected to show a decline in sales, but will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data tracks only the 15% of home sales that Tuesday’s data does not.

There is an FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday and will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy or inflation, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon.

The only important release scheduled for Thursday is May’s Durable Goods Orders, which gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expected to show a decline of 1.4% in new orders from April to May. A larger decline would be the ideal scenario for the bond market and could lead to a decline in mortgage pricing Thursday.

There are two reports being released Friday morning. The first is the final reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month’s first revision showed a 3.0% rise in the GDP, which is what analysts are expecting to see again.

The second report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more comfortable with their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data has the potential to affect bond trading and mortgage rates. A downward revision would be considered good news for bonds and rates, but forecasts are calling for no change from this month’s preliminary reading of 75.5.

Also worth noting is the fact that the Fed will be selling more debt this week. These sales may influence trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There are sales every day except Friday but the two most likely to affect rates are Wednesday’s 5-year Note sale and Thursday’s 7-year Note auction. If they are met with a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to afternoon improvements to mortgage rates also. But, if the sales draw a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage rates may move higher during afternoon trading those days.

Overall, tomorrow will likely be the quietest day of the week unless the stock markets stage a rally or sizable sell-off. The most active should be Wednesday with the FOMC meeting adjourning or Thursday due to the importance of the data being posted that day. Friday’s news may also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010

The Home Buyer Tax Credit Extension Has Not Been Passed Into Law (Yet)

June 18, 2010
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Tax credit was not extended -- yetAs its June 30, 2010 closing deadline approaches, the federal home buyer tax credit is back in the news.

Unfortunately, the headlines are misleading.

Contrary to what you may have read (or heard), the federal home buyer tax credit has not been extended past June 30, 2010. At least not yet. And here’s why there’s confusion.

Look at these headlines from earlier this week:

  • Senate Extends Date On Home-Buying Tax Credit (Philadelphia Inquirer)
  • U.S. Senate Approves Extension Of Home Buyer Tax Credit (NASDAQ)
  • Senate Approves Home Tax Credit Extension (Reuters)

Now, nothing above is factually incorrect, but each neglects a key piece of the country’s law-making process — it takes more than the Senate to pass a law. For a bill to become a law, it must pass the Senate and the House of Representatives and then it must be ratified by the President.

To date, we’ve only cleared just one of those 3 steps.

This means that the federal home buyer tax credit has not been formally extended. As of now, it’s still in discussion.  Ultimately, though, if the extension does pass, it’s expected to extend the closing date deadline for Olympia home buyers beyond the original June 30, 2010 date into September 2010.

Homeowners must still have been in contract as of April 30, 2010 to claim up to $8,000 in federal tax credits.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 14, 2010

June 14, 2010
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Retail Sales (June 2008 - May 2010)Mortgage markets posted four good days last week and one awful one.  Unfortunately for rate shoppers in Washington State , that one bad day outweighed the gains of the other four and mortgage rates worsened on the week overall.

Despite re-touching all-time lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, Conforming and FHA mortgage rates moved higher on the week.

There wasn’t much domestic data on which for mortgage markets to move so rates took their cues from global economic activity. Strong data from Japan and China, plus an improving outlook from the Eurozone, sparked optimism among Wall Street investors. Cash poured into the stock market and it happened at the expense of bonds — including the mortgage-backed ones.

It’s the primary reasons rates rose and not even the worst Retail Sales report in 8 months could undue the damage.

Often, weak Retail Sales data causes mortgage rates to fall. Last week, however, that wasn’t the case. 

This week, there’s cause for rates to rise again with Wednesday emerging as a “data day”.

First, at 8:30 AM ET, the government releases two key housing statistics and one major gauge for inflation — Housing Starts, Building Permits and Producer Price Index, respectively.  Strength in any or all three should lead mortgage rates higher.

Then, at 5:45 PM ET, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke makes a public speech and anytime Bernanke speaks, mortgage rates can move.

Mortgage rates remain unnaturally low and a lot of Americans have taken advantage already. If you’re a homeowner and you’ve wondered whether or not a refinance makes sense, talk to your loan officer straight away. Low rates like this can’t last forever so lock one in while you can.

FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Approved To Triple In Cost

June 11, 2010
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FHA mortgage insurance premiums approved to triple Starting sometime later this year, the monthly cost to carry an FHA-insured mortgage is expected to rise.

In a near-unanimous vote, the House of Representatives gave the FHA power to raise the monthly mortgage insurance premiums it charges to its borrowers.

Currently, monthly mortgage insurance premiums are 0.55% of the unpaid loan balance, divided by 12.  The recently approved Federal Housing Administration Reform Act provides for an increase in monthly premium of up to 1.55 percent, among other details of the bill.

Despite the ability to charge 1.55 percent, FHA officials say an increase to 0.90 percent would be sufficient to self-insure its loans.

In everyday terms, assuming a $200,000 mortgage, the math to a homeowner looks as follows:

  • Current Premium (0.55%) : $91.67 monthly mortgage insurance premium
  • Expected Increase (0.90%) : $150.00 monthly mortgage insurance premium
  • Maximum Increase (1.55%) : $258.33 monthly mortgage insurance premium

A increase in monthly mortgage insurance premiums will reduce home affordability for buyers in Lacey and strain household budgets. 

The news isn’t all terrible, however.

Because higher monthly insurance premiums are expected to pad the FHA coffers sufficiently, the FHA has said it plans to reduce its upfront mortgage insurance premium paid at closing from 2.25 percent down to 1.000 percent. 

On the same $200,000 mortgage, a move like that would reduces closing costs by $2,500.

The bill awaits companion legislation in Senate and final approval into law, but considering the House’s lopsided vote Thursday, it could happen rather quickly.  If you’re planning to buy or refinance a home using an FHA mortgage, you may find that waiting to take the next step could be a costly one, long-term.

The FHA insured close to a quarter of all mortgages made in the first three months of 2010.