Posts Tagged ‘ CU Mortgage Division ’

Home Buyers Get A Green Light : Pending Home Sales Plunge In November

January 6, 2010
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Pending Home Sales November 2009

Just one month after touching a 3-year high, the National Association of Realtors® Pending Home Sales index plunged in November.  A “pending” home sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but has yet to close.

The 16 percent drop marks the first retreat in Pending Home Sales since January of last year.

The weak Pending Home Sales data is an indication that Existing Home Sales data will be soft this month. This is because, historically, 80 percent of Pending Home Sales convert to “closed sales” within 60 days, and most of the rest close within 120.

With Pending Home Sales down, the Pierce County housing market should lose some of its momentum.  For today’s home buyers, this kind of slack can represent a terrific opportunity.

Home prices are a function of supply and demand; of buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, competition leads to bidding wars, ultimately, and higher home prices overall.  The imbalance can also create a sense of urgency that results in over-paying for a home.

When buyers are sparse, on the other hand, the psychology of real estate shifts. 

Home sellers are keenly aware of foot traffic and requests for second and third showings. Without buyers, their homes can’t sell.  They also note a lack of general feedback from the market.

It’s at this point that seller fear can creep in and it becomes a buyer’s best time to buy.

Based on November’s Pending Home Sales data, it’s clear that home sellers are in abundance right now.  Home buyers have leverage.

It may not last.

With mortgage rates easing lower this week, the federal home buyer tax credit still in effect, and the Holiday Season officially over, buyers are getting back to business in Lacey and everywhere. 

Plus, with the tax credit deadline of April 30, 2010 fast approaching, buyer activity should increase over the next 4-6 weeks.

The market looks ripe for a buy but don’t rush it.  Take your time and bid right. But when you’re ready, be ready — once the market momentum shifts back to sellers, you might lose all that leverage you built up through the winter.

Looking At The 2010 Predictions For Housing Markets And Mortgage Rates

January 5, 2010
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2010 housing and mortgage predictions are guesses2010 is just a few days old and already the “experts” are making predictions for the year.

Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:

Given how varied their outlooks, it’s clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it’s a guess nonetheless.

Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn’t fall.  Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction was fulfilled.

There’s a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what’s coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.

The only thing that’s certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there’s a lot of good “deals” in housing. Make the most of what’s out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.

Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses. For daily updates on mortgage rates and the mortgage market visit CU Mortgage Division’s website at www.cumortgagedivision.com . For an appointment with a loan officer at CU Mortgage Division give us a call at (360) 539-4687 to discuss your options to purchase the home of your dreams.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 4, 2010

January 4, 2010
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Non-Farm Payrolls in focus this weekMortgage markets were relatively flat last week during holiday-shortened trading.  After starting the week with a Monday surge higher, mortgage rates settled down through Tuesday and remained somewhat flat into the early-close for New Year’s Eve.

However, as compared to the 4-month low posted post-Thanksgiving, conforming mortgage pricing has now worsened by more than 300 basis points.  In English, that means that a December 1 Washington mortgage rate quoted with zero points is available today at a cost of 3 points.

1 “point” is equal to 1 percent of how much you borrow.

If you were shopping for homes or rates last month, you no doubt noticed that pricing zoomed higher to close out 2009. How 2010 starts is anyone’s guess. This week will hold the answer.

It’s a week light with data, but heavy on importance.  The biggest news comes Friday in the form of the December employment report.

Last month, the Unemployment Rate fell for just the second time in 2 years and net job gains nearly turned positive.  Both points were bad for mortgage rates because a weak economy has helped keep rates down.  Evidence of improvement, therefore — at least according to Wall Street — is reason for reversal.

This month, analysts expect a net job gain of zero.  If they get it, the psychological effect of the data should cause stock markets to rise and mortgage markets to sink.

A worsening market is bad for rates.

Other data to watch this week is Tuesday’s Pending Home Sales report and Wednesday’s FOMC November Minutes release. Both can forcefully impact markets and rates.

Today is January 4 — there’s a lot of 2010 to go.  However, that won’t stop Wall Street from trying to figure it out. As the stock market rises and falls this week, the bond market will likely be in tow.  Abrupt movements mean changing mortgage rates and we’ll see more of our fair share of it over the next few weeks.

If you’re quoted a mortgage rate this week that fits your budget, consider locking it in.  Rates may fall in 2010, or they may not.  It’s a gamble on which you don’t want on the wrong side because when rates do rise, they’re likely to rise quickly.

Markets can’t sustain rates like this in an expanding economy.

Long-Term Mortgage Rates Inch Up To Just Over 5 Percent

December 24, 2009
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30-Year and 15-Year Rates Still at Incredibly Low Levels

McLean, VA – Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 24, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 4.94 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.14 percent.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.45 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.38 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.91 percent.

The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.40 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.37 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.49 percent.

The 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.38 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.34 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.95 percent.  

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

“Although interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are above 5 percent this week for the first time since the end of October, they are still around 0.5 percentage points below this year’s peak set in mid-June,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “ARM rates increased by a lesser amount as the market consensus calls for no rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the immediate future.

“Meanwhile, the housing market continues to show improvement. Total existing home sales jumped 7.4 percent in November to an annualized pace of 6.54 million units, which was the most since February 2007. Moreover, the number of unsold existing homes was the lowest since December 2006 and the number of unsold new homes was the least since April 1971, which may leave future room for new construction.”

For a link to Freddie Mac’s recent article click here.

Home Inventories Plummet, Foreshadowing Higher Prices By Spring 2010

December 23, 2009
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Existing Home Sales Nov 2008-Nov 2009Home resales are soaring.

For the 4th consecutive month, the Existing Home Sales report revealed what today’s buyers and sellers already know — there’s a lot of buyer activity right now.

Existing Home Sales surged 7-plus percent in November, posting its largest number of recorded sales in 33 months. Sales volume is up 44% higher versus last year.

It’s another example of the housing market in recovery.

There were other interesting statistics buried in the November data, too. According to the National Association of Realtors:

  1. 51 percent of home buyers were first-timers
  2. Distressed properties accounted for one-third of all sales
  3. The median home sale price rose slightly

But of all the stats from the November Existing Home Sales report, perhaps the most important one is the one showing home supplies falling to 6.5 months. It’s nearly half of the home supply available last November.

The rapid run-off of inventory throughout 2009 is more than a trend at this point and suggests higher home valuations in 2010. Especially because mortgage rates are low, tax credits are available, and the press is giving housing positive coverage.

You shouldn’t feel rushed to buy, but you probably don’t wait too long, either. The best deals of 2010 may be gone before that Spring Buying Season even starts.

When It's A Holiday Week, Mortgage Rate Shoppers Should Be Extra Vigilant

December 22, 2009
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Vacation weeks can lead to mortgage market volatility

Mortgage pricing worsened Monday, driving mortgage rates to their highest levels since October.

The day’s action was drastic, too.

Some banks issued as many as 3 rate sheets Monday — each worse than the preceding and one reason why rates got so bad, so quickly, is because this week marks the beginning of mini-Vacation Season on Wall Street.

Between now and January 4, 2010, be prepared for big swings in pricing from day-to-day. Shopping for a mortgage could be a challenge.

The relationship between vacation days and mortgage rate volatility is rooted in how mortgage rates are “made”.

  1. Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security that is sold on Wall Street
  2. Mortgage-backed bonds can’t sell without a bond buyer and a bond seller agreeing to a specific sale price

So, during vacation week, when the total number of market participants are less, there are fewer opportunities for buyers and sellers to meet at a specific price. As a result, bond prices rise and fall with a higher velocity than on a “normal” day. Rallies and momentum plays are exaggerated, too.

Now, mortgage market action like this can work in your favor, or it could work out of your favor. Unfortunately, on Monday, rates moved out of favor.

This rest of this week is stacked with market-moving economic data. The data could be better-than-expected, or worse-than-expected. Either way, markets will react a little more feverishly than normal. Therefore, if you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it.

Before long, the rate could be gone.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 21, 2009

December 21, 2009
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Fed Funds Rate (Dec 2006 - Dec 2009)Mortgage markets improved last week as pricing followed a roller coaster-like pattern. After touching a 6-week high Tuesday, rates rallied to weekly lows Thursday, and then jumped back higher Friday.

Despite the improvement last week overall, mortgage pricing remains significantly worse from the all-time lows set in late-November.

Oddly, last week’s most prominent mortgage-related story wasn’t the most influential one.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee adjourned from a two-day meeting. It voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current target zone of 0.000-0.250 percent. This wasn’t news, per se — markets expected the “no change” vote.

However, in its accompanying press release, the Fed appeared more rosy in its economic outlook, citing improving labor markets and low levels of inflation. Results like this are a mixed bag for rate shoppers, but is generally welcomed as good news.

Rates were unchanged after the FOMC release.

The bigger story last week comes from Greece.

Concerns for the country’s debt burden have been in play for weeks, but last week, Standard & Poor’s officially downgraded Greece’s debt rating. The move triggered concerns regarding broader Eurozone debt, especially considering the recent issues in Dubai.

U.S. mortgage markets benefitted from Greece’s troubles as “safe haven” attracted investors, driving down rates Thursday afternoon.

Debt concerns should remain in focus this week. Furthermore, there’s a bevy of domestic data that could swing rates in either direction, too. Most notably, watch for Tuesday’s housing data, Wednesday’s inflation data, and Thursday’s consumer confidence data. Each can be a powerful influence on rates.

There will be less volume on Wall Street because of Christmas and less volume tends to spur mortgage rate volatility. Be wary of swings in either direction.

Markets close early Thursday and will be closed Friday.

The Federal Reserve's Relationship To Mortgage Rates

December 15, 2009
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Interest rate spread between the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and Fed Funds Rate (2000-2009)The Federal Open Market Committee meets today for the last time in 2009. It’s a 2-day meeting and the Fed is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent.

But that doesn’t mean mortgage rates won’t change.

See, a major misperception among the public is that the Federal Reserve sets mortgage rates. That’s false. Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.

As an example, since 2000, the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage have been within 1 percent of each other at times, and as far apart as 5 percent at others.

If there was a direct relationship between the two, such a spread would be impossible.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates. Wall Street does. However, whenever the Fed adjourns from its meetings, mortgage rates are susceptible to change.

For home buyers and rate shoppers, this week’s Fed meeting takes on added significance.

Over the last half-year, the Fed has used its post-meeting press releases to acknowledge an improving economy in which growth is tempered by job loss and tepid spending. In November, though, net job gains nearly went positive and Retail Sales data proved strong.

If the Fed gets more positive in its message tomorrow, mortgage rates will suffer. This is because Wall Street will use the Fed’s position on the economy as a reason to buy stocks. Some of the cash to fuel those buys will come from the mortgage bond market.

As extra bond supply hits Wall Street, mortgage rates go up.

Similarly, if the Fed’s message goes negative on the economy, investors are expected to sell their stock positions in favor of buying bonds. This makes rates go down.

So, the Federal Reserve doesn’t make mortgage rates, but it does exert an influence on them. In other words, rate shoppers would be wise to watch for the FOMC’s 2:15 PM adjournment. Even though the Fed Funds Rate is expected to remain unchanged, mortgage rates certainly are not.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 14, 2009

December 14, 2009
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The FOMC meets this week -- mortgage rates will be volatileMortgage markets worsened for a second consecutive week last week amid debt default concerns and stronger-than-expected economic data. Dollars left the bond market and mortgage rates suffered.

After re-reaching an all-time low December 1, mortgage rates have since rolled back to mid-November levels.

Rates are still low right now. Just not as low.

And meanwhile, last week’s big story — the one that should concern mortgage applicants between now and early-2010 — is the story of Retail Sales.

Last week, a government report showed that American consumers are spending more this holiday season than was expected. The Retail Sales data implies that consumers are feeling more confident in themselves, and in the economy overall.

This is one of the last remaining pieces in the economic recovery puzzle. Job growth, of course, is another, and both will be in focus this week as the Federal Open Market Committee meets for its final 2-day meeting of the year.

The FOMC isn’t expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate from its current “target range” near 0.000%, but when the FOMC adjourns at 2:15 PM Wednesday, its press release will dominate the news.

Specifically, watch for verbiage on the expected economic growth for 2010 because no matter what the Fed says, mortgage rates will be in flux. As one example:

  • If the Fed says inflation is under control, mortgage rates should fall
  • If the Fed says inflation pressures are growing, mortgage rates should rise

There’s other news this week, too, including PPI and CPI — 2 popular inflation gauges, plus some housing data, too.

If you need to lock a rate this week, it may be safer to lock prior to the FOMC’s adjournment. Given the recent strength in Retail Sales and the reports of “crowded malls” this past weekend, the Fed may choose to revise its growth estimates for the economy — a move that would be awful for mortgage rates.

Strong Retail Sales Data Could Lead To Higher Mortgage Rates In January

December 11, 2009
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Retail Sales Data November 2009If you wonder what mortgage rates and home affordability will look like next year, today’s Retail Sales data may hold your answer.

Versus October, November’s ex-auto sales were up by more than 1 percent. Analysts expected the increase, but not an increase of this magnitude.

“Ex-auto” means that motor vehicles and parts are excluded from the data.

Home values are increasing in many parts of the country and household net worths are rising, too. Therefore, we can infer from the Retail Sales report that U.S. consumers are starting to feel better about their individual finances, and about the economy overall.

To homebuyers and rate shoppers, strong Retail Sales data may foreshadow higher rates for mortgages ahead. This is because sales data is a by-product of consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

As spending increases, the economy tends to expand, drawing investment dollars into stock markets and away from bond markets — including mortgage-backed bonds, the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

Less bond demand leads to higher rates and, therefore, lower levels of home affordability.

Despite the Holiday Season momentum, however, 2009 will likely mark just the second time that Retail Sales data fell year-over-year since the government started tracking it 40 years ago. The other year was 2008.

But, if November’s Retail Sales is a reliable indicator of consumer sentiment overall, we should expect 2010 to rebound strongly. And when it does, mortgage rates should suffer.

The housing market is recovering, mortgage rates are still near all-time lows, and the government is offering an $8,000 tax credit to qualified buyers through April 30, 2010. If you plan to buy a home next spring, you may want to consider moving up your timeframe. Waiting may be costly.