Posts Tagged ‘ first mortgage loans ’

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 6, 2012

February 6, 2012
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Jobs growth pushes mortgage rates higherMortgage markets worsened last week as domestic job growth surprised Wall Street and the Eurozone moved yet one more step closer to reaching a lasting Greece sovereign debt solution.

Conforming mortgage rates in Washington State rose on the news, although you wouldn’t know it from looking at Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.87% last week with 0.8 discount points due at closing, plus closing costs. 1 discount point is a fee equal to one percent of your loan size.

3.87% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the official, all-time low for the weekly Freddie Mac survey, conducted since the 1970s. However, because Freddie Mac gathers its results on Monday and Tuesday only, by the time the survey results were released Thursday morning, mortgage rates were already rising off their lows.

Then, Friday morning, after January’s Non-Farm Payrolls data was released, mortgage rates surged.

The January jobs report exceeded expectations in nearly every fashion possible :

  • Economists expected to see 135,000 jobs created in January. The actual number was 243,000.
  • Economists expected to see the Unemployment Rate at 8.5% in January. The actual number was 8.3%.
  • Revisions added an additional 180,000 net new jobs to the original 2011 tally.

As compared to one year ago, there are 2.1 million more people employed in the U.S. workforce. Figures like this hint at a stronger national economy, and that tends to drive mortgage rates up.

This week, with little economic data due for release, mortgage rates are expected to move on momentum. Right now, that momentum is causing rates to rise.

If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate in Olympia and want to know if the time is right to lock, consider that it’s impossible to time a market bottom, but simple to spot a “good deal”.

Mortgage rates remain near historical lows — it’s a good time to lock one in. Call your lender today.

Home Affordability Threatened By Friday’s Jobs Report

February 2, 2012
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3-month rolling average NFP

This week, once more, we find mortgage rates are on a downward trajectory. Conforming mortgage rates have returned to near all-time lows. After Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, however, those low rates may come to an end.

It’s a risky time for Washington State home buyers and would-be refinancers to be without a locked rate.

Each month, on the first Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month prior. More commonly called the “jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls provides a sector-by-sector employment breakdown, and the nation’s Unemployment Rate.

In December 2011, the government reported 200,000 net new jobs created, and an Unemployment Rate of 8.5%.

For January 2012, economists project 135,000 net new jobs with no change in the Unemployment Rate and, depending on how accurate those predictions are proved, FHA and conforming mortgage rates for homes in Thurston County are subject to change. The monthly jobs reports tends to have an out-sized influence on the direction of daily mortgage rates.

The connection between jobs and mortgage rates is fairly direct.

Job growth is a key cog in the economic growth engine and mortgage rates change daily based on short- and long-term economic expectation. As more people join the workforce, economic expectations change; the economy tends to expand, breeding optimism among investment. When this occurs, it often spurs investment in the stock market, which tends to leads mortgage rates up.

In short, in a recovering economy, when job growth is strong, all things equal, mortgage rates rise. Home affordability suffers.

So, for today’s rate shoppers, Friday’s job report represents a risk. The economy has added jobs over 15 straight months, a streak that’s added 2.1 million people to the workforce. Although the jobs market remains weak and well off its peaks from last decade, a 15-month streak is worth watching. More jobs means more more income earned nationwide, more money spent by households, and more taxes collected by governments.

This items build a foundation for economic growth and Wall Street is watching.

If tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls shows more jobs created than the estimated 135,000, mortgage rates are expected to rise. If the jobs figures falls short, mortgage rates should fall.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is released at 8:30 AM ET.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (January 25, 2012)

January 25, 2012
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Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishWednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.

For the third consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote, objecting only to the language used in the Fed’s official statement.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has “expanding moderately” since its last meeting in December 2011, adding that the growth is occurring despite “slowing in global growth” — a reference to ongoing economic uncertainty within the Eurozone.

The Federal Reserve expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters but is wary of “strains” from global financial markets, and these three threats to the U.S. economy :

  1. The housing sector remains “depressed”
  2. The unemployment rate remains “elevated”
  3. Fixed business investment has “slowed”

On the positive side, the FOMC said that household spending is rising and inflation remains in-check. The group also believes that employment will gradually improve nationwide going forward.

The Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs.

Immediately following the FOMC’s statement, mortgage markets rallied, pressuring mortgage rates to fall in and around Olympia.

Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and, for homeowners willing to pay points plus closing costs, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgages can be locked at below 4 percent. If you’re in the process of buying or refinancing a home in Washington State , it’s a good time to lock a mortgage rate with your lender.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a one-day event slated for March 13, 2012.

Lock Your Mortgage Rate : New Loan Fees Expected Within Days

January 10, 2012
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Payroll tax fees for new loansStarting soon, nearly all home buyers and refinancing households throughout Washington State and nationwide will pay higher mortgage loan fees. Congress has made it law.

13 months ago, as part of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, Congress enacted a one-year cut to FICA payroll taxes.

FICA stands for Federal Insurance Contributions Act. Taxes collected under FICA fund such programs as Social Security and Medicare.

The stimulus plan temporarily lowered tax rates for salaried workers from 6.2% to 4.2%; and for self-employed persons from 12.4% to 10.4%. Effective January 1, 2012, “regular” tax rates were to return.

That is, until late-December 2011. In one of its last moves of the year, Congress passed a temporary, two-month extension to the payroll tax cut, extending it through February 29, 2012. The expected cost to the U.S. Treasury is $33 billion.

To recoup those costs, Congress has turned to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA.

Each entity has been ordered to collect news fees on each new mortgage is backs, and has been told to forward said fees to U.S. Treasury directly. There’s no “workaround” allowed or forgiveness applied — each new loan is subject to the payment.

The rules are listed on page 17 of the law’s final draft, in a section unambiguously titled “Title IV — Mortgage Fees and Premiums”.

According to the law :

  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must collect an average fee of no less than 10 basis points (0.1%) per new loan
  • The FHA must raise its monthly mortgage insurance premiums 10 basis points for all new loans

The expected cost to consumers is no less than $10 monthly per $100,000 borrowed. Some analysts, however, expect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to collect more than is minimally required. This could add an additional $30-50 to your monthly mortgage payment per $100,000 borrowed.

Therefore, if you’ve been shopping for a home or for mortgage rates in Lacey , take advantage. Within days, lenders are expected to start collecting Payroll Tax Extension fees from mortgage applicants — a move that will cost you money.

Lock today to avoid the big fees. Save yourself money.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 28, 2011

November 28, 2011
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Non-Farm Payrolls Nov 2009-Oct 2011Mortgage markets worsened slightly last week through a bouncy, holiday-shortened trading week. Markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and re-opened only briefly Friday.

As in past weeks, though, economic, political, and financial news from the Eurozone dictated the direction of U.S. mortgage-backed bonds.

As Greece — and now Italy — have faltered, investors have sought to preserve their respective principal, moving money from unsafe assets to safe ones, a class which includes Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed mortgage bonds.

This investment pattern is known as “safe haven” buying and it’s why mortgage rates tend to improve when large economies grow unstable. Government mortgage bonds are considered among the safest securities available.

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is available for 3.98%, according to Freddie Mac, with borrowers expected to pay an accompanying 0.7 discount points. 1 “discount point” is a loan fee equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

“No-point loans” carry higher rates than the Freddie Mac-published figures, but come with lower closing costs.

This week, there are several reasons to expect mortgage rates to rise throughout Washington State.

First, markets are speculating that the IMF will lend Italy 600 billion euro to help avert financial crisis. This move would reverse the safe haven buying that’s characterized the last few weeks of trading, thereby leading mortgage rates higher.

A second reason is that they are early reports that Black Friday shoppers out-spent analyst estimates. Consumer spending is the largest part of the U.S. economy so, if spending is up, the economy should be up, too.

As before, this would reverse some of the safe haven buying that’s helped keep mortgage rates low.

Lastly, this week is stuffed with new data including Friday’s always-important Non-Farm Payrolls report. Wall Street expects 116,000 net new jobs created in November. If the actual figure is much higher, mortgage rates will rise.

Expect mortgage rates to be volatile this week. Your quoted mortgage rates could vary by as much as a quarter-percent from day-to-day. If you’re nervous about losing a low rate that’s been offered to you, consider locking in.

Conforming Loan Limits Unchanged For 2012

November 25, 2011
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Conforming loan limits (1980-2012)

A conforming mortgage is one that, literally, conforms to the mortgage guidelines as set forth by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conforming mortgage guidelines are Fannie’s and Freddie’s eligibility standards; an underwriter’s series of check-boxes to determine whether a given loan should be approved.

Among the many traits of a conforming mortgage is “loan size”.

Each year, the government re-assesses its maximum allowable loan size based on “typical” housing costs nationwide. Loans that fall at, or below, this amount meet conforming mortgage guidelines. Loans in excess of this limit are known as “jumbo” loans.

Between 1980 and 2006, as home values increased, conforming loan limits did, too, rising from $93,750 to $417,000. Since 2006, however, despite falling home prices in many U.S. markets, the conforming loan limit has held steady.  This will remain true for 2012 as well.

In 2012, for the 7th straight year, the national, single-family conforming mortgage loan limit will remain at $417,000.

The complete 2012 conforming loan limit breakdown, by property type :

  • 1-unit properties : $417,000
  • 2-unit properties : $533,850
  • 3-unit properties : $645,300
  • 4-unit properties : $801,950

However, there are some areas nationally that have earned ”loan limit exceptions” based on the local median sales prices. These areas are known as “high-cost” areas and loan limits within these regions range from $417,001 to a maximum of $625,500.

Some examples of high-cost areas include San Francisco (along with a most of California), New York City, and most of Hawaii and Alaska. Nationally, there are approximately 200 such “high-cost” areas.

Verify your local conforming loan limit and loan limits across Washington State via the Fannie Mae website. A complete county-by-county list is published online.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 2, 2011 Edition)

November 2, 2011
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Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishWednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was nearly unanimous, with just one dissenting voter. There were 3 dissenters at each of the FOMC’s last two meetings.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in September, there’s new evidence that the economy “strengthened somewhat” in the third quarter.

One example cited is that consumer and business spending continues to rise while inflationary pressures on the economy remain modest. This indicates controlled growth — a plus in a recovering economy.

The economy remains slowed by a number of factors, though, as noted by the Fed :

  1. “Continuing weakness” in the labor market
  2. Softness in commercial real estate
  3. A “depressed” housing market

In response to mixed economic conditions, the FOMC opted to “do nothing” today; it introduced no new monetary policy, and revised none of its existing market stimulus. The Fed re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent “at least until mid-2013″ and affirmed “Operation Twist” — the program in which the Fed sells Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and uses the proceeds to buy mortgage bonds with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been negative this afternoon. Mortgage rates throughout Washington State are rising because analysts expected the Fed to launch new, bigger stimulus plans. It didn’t. Rates may drift higher for the new few days, too.

Therefore, it today’s mortgage rates fit your household budget, consider locking in a mortgage rate. Mortgage rates are very low right now, relative to history. It may not last.

The FOMC’s next meeting — its last scheduled meeting of the year — is December 13, 2011.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 11, 2011

October 11, 2011
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Unemployment Rate (2008-2011)Mortgage markets worsened last week as safe haven buying eased and demand for mortgage-backed bonds dropped. As in most weeks since March 2011, Greece and U.S. jobs dictated market direction.

Conforming mortgage rates in Olympia rose last week, lifting rates off their all-time lows and causing consternation among the nation’s would-be buyers and refinancers.

Last week’s action may surprise you. After all, Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey said average, 30-year fixed rate mortgages had dipped, dropping to 3.94% — the first time the average rate reported sub-4 percent.

A keen eye, however, revealed the another truth.

Yes, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage did go sub-4 percent, but, in order to get those rates, applicants were suddenly required to pay 0.8 “discount points”. This is an increase of 0.1 discount points from the week prior, a change in loan cost thatr reduces the benefit of falling mortgage rates.

1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

All of that is history now, however,. Rates climbed each day last week and are now at their pre-Labor Day levels. The Refi Boom may not be over, but it may be stalled.

This week, mortgage rates may continue to climb. There is talk within the Eurozone that Germany and France will come to Greece’s aid, and that a plan will be solidified prior to November 3. This would boost stock markets at the expense of bonds, leading to higher mortgage rates.

In addition, last week’s strong employment data has renewed speculation that the U.S. economy is, in fact, healthy so analysts are now watching for Friday’s Retail Sales data.

Because consumer spending is an economic catalyst, if Retail Sales shows strength, mortgage rates should rise.

And, lastly, there is a 10-year Treasury auction Wednesday. Mortgage bonds don’t mirror the treasuries, but when demand is strong for treasuries, it’s often strong for mortgage-backed bonds, too. Therefore, a strong auction of government debt will help hold mortgage rates down.

A weak auction should lead rates higher.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 21, 2011 Edition)

September 21, 2011
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Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishWednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

The vote was 7-3 — the second straight meeting at which the FOMC adjourned with as many 3 dissenters. Prior to that last meeting, there hadn’t been 3 FOMC dissenters since 1992.

In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented a dour outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in August:

  1. Economic growth “remains slow”
  2. Unemployment rates “remain elevated”
  3. The housing sector “remains depressed”

The Fed also said that there are “significant downside risks” to the economic outlook, tied to strains in the global financial markets.

The news wasn’t all bad, however.

The Fed noted that business investment in equipment and software continues to expand, and that inflationary pressures on the economy appear to have stabilized. The Fed then re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent “at least until mid-2013″. This means that Prime Rate — the rate to which credit card rates and lines of credits are often tied — should remain unchanged at 3.250 for at least another 2 years.

Furthermore, as expected, the Federal Reserve launched a market stimulus plan aimed at lowering long-term interest rates. The Fed will sell $400 billion in Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and use the proceeds to buy the same with maturity between 6 and 30 years.

Mortgage market reaction to the FOMC statement has been positive this afternoon. Mortgage rates in Washington State are improving, but note that Wall Street sentiment can shift quickly — especially in a market that’s as uncertain as this one.

If today’s mortgage rates and payments fit your household budget, consider locking in a rate. Rates can change swiftly.

The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day affair, scheduled for November 1-2, 2011.

What’s Ahead For #Mortgage Rates This Week : September 12, 2011

September 12, 2011
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Eurozone trouble aids mortgage ratesMortgage markets improved last week as a weakening Eurozone and questions about the U.S. economy sparked a global flight-to-quality. Conforming and FHA mortgage rates improved for the second week in a row.

The storylines should sound familiar by now. They are the same ones that have dictated the path of mortgage rates since April 2011. As a result, according to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates across Washington State and nationwide are now at an all-time low.

Not in 50 years of tracking mortgage rates has pricing been so favorable.

Last week’s holiday-shortened week didn’t begin well for rate shoppers in Lacey. Rates moved higher on the expectation of additional economic stimulus from two separate parts of the government — the Federal Reserve and Congress.

Wall Street held high hopes for Ben Bernanke’s address to the Economic Club of Minnesota, and for the President’s address to a joint session of Congress. It expected Fed Chief Bernanke to reveal clues about the Fed’s next move; and it expected the President to unleash a massive jobs creation program that would put more Americans to work.

Both outcomes would have harmed mortgage rates as money flowed into stocks. However, neither happened. Bernanke kept mum on the Federal Reserve’s options and the White House announced a jobs program smaller in scope than was expected.

Mortgage rates fell throughout the day Thursday then received a big boost Friday.

Amid rumors of a pending Greek default and the potential credit downgrades of several Eurozone banking groups, safe haven buying picked up and drove mortgage rates down.

Markets open this week with rates lower than they’ve ever been in history.

There isn’t much new data set for release this week so market expectations will continue to set the direction in which mortgage rates go. If concerns for a Eurozone default rise, mortgage rates should fall. Conversely, if Eurozone chatter settles, mortgage rates should rise.

For now, mortgage rates remain at all-time lows and should not be taken for granted. If you see a rate that makes sense for you, consider locking it in.