Posts Tagged ‘ FOMC Minutes ’

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 29, 2011

August 29, 2011
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Net new jobs August 2009-July 2011Last week was another volatile week for mortgage rates. Wall Street alternately sought risk and shunned it, causing mortgage-backed bonds to rise and fall rapidly.

There was a lot to move markets, too, including banking concerns across Europe, inflation figures within the U.S., and a public speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Conforming rates in Washington State rose to their highest levels of the week Wednesday afternoon, then receded into the weekend. 3

0-year fixed rates remain above their all-time lows set 2 weeks ago. 5-year ARMs are at all-time lows.

This week, mortgage rates figure to be equally jumpy. As well as a full slate of economic data, because of Labor Day, bond markets will be light on volume. When volume is light, pricing gets volatile.

The week’s calendar of data includes:

  • Monday : Pending Home Sales Index; Personal Income and Outlays
  • Tuesday : FOMC Minutes; Fed President Kocherlakota speaks
  • Wednesday : Factory Orders
  • Thursday : Jobless Claims; ISM Manufacturing Index
  • Friday : Non-Farm Payrolls

Of all the reports, though, it’s Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls that might move mortgage markets the most.

Jobs are crucial to the ongoing economic recovery and, from Wall Street to Capitol Hill, it’s top of mind.

If the jobs report shows more jobs created than expected, or a positive forward trend, expect bond markets to fall, pushing mortgage rates up. On the other hand, if the jobs report is soft, mortgage rates may improve.

We can’t know what rates in Olympia will do on any given day, so the best strategy for a shopper is to shop with purpose. Know what you want, and be ready to lock when you see it.

If you wait too long, the rate will be gone.

Call CU Mortgage Division in Olympia for all your home loan needs at (360) 539-4687 or apply online for a free pre-approval.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 16, 2010

February 16, 2010
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Housing Starts Jan 2008-Dec 2009Mortgage markets worsened last week on general profit-taking in the U.S. bond market, combined with talk of a coordinated rescue effort for Greece and its debt burden. Mortgage-backed bonds sold off, causing conventional and FHA mortgage rates to rise.

There wasn’t much hard data on which to trade last week, either, so momentum took markets farther than they otherwise might have moved on their own.  It marked the first time in 5 weeks that rates rose for Washington State rate shoppers.

This week, data returns. Expect mortgage market movement.

Some of the week’s more important releases include:

  1. Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
  2. The release of the last month’s FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
  3. Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)

Inclement weather may have impacted last month’s Housing Starts reading so pay closer attention to Building Permits.  Permits precede actual construction and can be more indicative of economic optimism. If permit readings are strong, it should be a negative for mortgage rates.

The same is true for the FOMC Minutes. 

Last month’s FOMC post-meeting press-release was decidedly middle-of-the-road, but the statement is just a summary of the Fed’s 2-day meeting, boiled down to a few paragraphs.  Wednesday’s release of the FOMC Minutes will reveal the deeper discussions among members of the Fed.  Wall Street will mine it for clues about the future of the economy.

If Wall Street senses optimism coming from the Fed — again — mortgage rates should rise.

And, lastly, keep an eye on Thursday and Friday’s inflation data.  Inflation is bad for mortgage rates so a higher-than-expected reading should spark a bond market sell-off.

Since mid-December, mortgage rates have moved within a tight range and there’s little reason for rates will break this range this week. However, we are near the top of the channel. If you know you’re going to need a rate locked soon, it’s probably best to do early in the week.