Posts Tagged ‘ Home Sales Data Info ’

Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring

March 5, 2010
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Pending Home Sales (July 2008-Jan 2010)

Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages  — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.

Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.

Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.

But will they really?

  1. Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
  2. Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
  3. The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010

In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Lacey and around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.

As The Supply Of New Homes Grows, So Does The Opportunity For A “Good Deal”

February 25, 2010
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New Homes Supply Jan 2009-Jan 2010

The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month — good news for homebuyers in King County and around the country.

A “new home” is a home for which there’s no previous owner.

New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 — the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.

Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009′s pace.

The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:

  • The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
  • Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
  • Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales

Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it’s a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.

As a result, this season’s home buyers may be treated to “free” upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.

It’s all a matter of timing, of course.  New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it’s not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season.  And from market to market, sales activity varies.

That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It’s a favorable time to buy a new home.

Pending Home Sales Predicts A Stronger Spring Market

February 3, 2010
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Pending Home Sales (June 2008-Dec 2009)The Pending Home Sales Index rose slightly in December, climbing 1 percent from November.

A Pending Home Sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. It’s a figure compiled by the National Association of Realtors® using sales data from over 100 regional listing services and more than 60 large brokerages around the country.

Because each pending sale is a true measure of sales activity, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be the most reliable forward-looking indicator for housing. 

Recent data supports this hypothesis.

After Pending Home Sales plunged 16 percent in November, Existing Home Sales fell by 17 percent in December.  Based on the most recent Pending Sales Index, therefore, we can expect January’s closed sales to be similarly level.

For home buyers in Tumwater , this is all a bit of good news. Home prices are based on the supply-and-demand balance that exists between buyers and sellers.  When buyers outnumber sellers, like they did through most of 2009, home supplies dip and, in fact, the national home inventory nearly halved during the 12 months ending November 2009.

With fewer homes for sale, multiple-offer situations were almost commonplace and home values rose as result.

Activity has since slowed, however, and fewer buyers are in today’s market. The supply-and-demand equation has shifted back some. In December, home supplies rose for the first time in 7 months and January will likely show the same.

The net result: Home buyers have more homes from which to choose and that can create negotiation leverage for better prices and better concessions.

With mortgage rates still low and a looming deadline on the homebuyer’s tax credit, market activity should be strong between now and April.   Take your time and bid right. And when you’re ready, be ready. The best deals likely won’t last. Obtain your pre-approval for a mortgage loan today so that you are ready! Call CU Mortgage Division at (360) 539-4687 or visit our website at www.cumortgagedivision.com to obtain your mortgage loan pre-approval, as you typically cannnot make an offer on a home without a Pre-Approval Letter.

Existing Home Sales Plummet In December, But It Was Expected

January 26, 2010
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Just one month after from blowing away Wall Street, December’s Existing Home Sales hit the skids, shedding nearly 17 percent and falling to a 4-month low.

Don’t be alarmed, though. The plunge was expected. And not just because Pending Home Sales cratered last month.

When November’s Existing Home Sales surged, it was clear to observers that an expiring $8,000 federal tax credit was the catalyst. At the time, the tax program was slated to expire November 30 and the looming deadline pushed a lot of would-be buyers in Tumwater from a December time frame into November.

The expiration date has a cannibalizing effect on December’s sales figures. It was only later that Congress extended the tax credit to June 30, 2010.

So, with home sales plunging in December, it’s no surprise that home supplies rose for the first time in 9 months.  Home Supply is calculating by dividing the number of homes for sale by the current sales pace.

The national housing supply now rests at 7.2 months.

Despite December’s Existing Home Sales report appearing shaky, it’s actually terrific new for home buyers in neighborhoods like Pierce County.

See, for the past few months, as housing has been improving, sellers nationwide have been bombarded by messages of “hot markets” and rising home prices by the media.  Psychologically, a seller is more likely to hold firm on price if he believes the housing market is improving and now December’s data is deflating that argument.

This is why we say there’s always two sides to a housing story — the buyers’ side and the sellers’ side. And, usually, what’s good for one party is bad for the other. It’s what we’re seeing now.

Because of soft data like December’s Existing Home Sales, buyers may retake some negotiation leverage that’s been lost since Spring 2009, helping to improve home affordability and, perhaps, spur more sales.

RealtyTrac's 2009 Foreclosure Report Gives Reason For Optimism

January 15, 2010
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Foreclosure deltas for the ten most foreclosure-heavy states of 2009

Like real estate, it appears that foreclosure activity is a local phenomenon, too.

As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than half of all foreclosure-related activity in 2009 came from just 4 states:

  1. California
  2. Florida
  3. Arizona
  4. Illinois

More than 1.4 million filings made in 2009 are attributed to the above states. Furthermore, each ranks in the Top 10 for 2009 Foreclosures Per Capita.

The other states are Nevada, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan and Colorado.

Versus 2008, foreclosures are up 21 percent nationwide and that’s a big number, but a deeper look at RealtyTrac’s annual reports reveals a more positive undertone on the housing market.

  1. 40 states fell below the national Foreclosures Per Capita average in 2009
  2. Foreclosure activity fell on an annual basis in 10 states as compared to 2008

Foreclosures are still prevalent, though, and buying homes in foreclosure in Tumwater continues to be big business.  First-time buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors each are bidding aggressively.

Distressed homes account for one-third of home resale activity, according to an industry trade group.

That said, buying foreclosures can be tricky.

First, properties are often sold “as-is” and the cost of repairs may unwind the home’s status as a “value buy”.  Furthermore, a lender may require specific fixes to be made prior to closing and that, too, costs money.

Second, buying a foreclosed home in Washington isn’t as streamlined as buying a “normal” home. Closing on a foreclosure can be a 120-day process or longer. A 4-month time-frame may not fit your schedule.

And, third, finding foreclosures can be difficult. Despite the growth in foreclosure search engines, it still takes a good real estate agent to uncover the best homes at the best prices.

Read the complete foreclosure report and take a peek at RealtyTrac’s foreclosure heat maps.  If you like what you see, talk to your real estate agent about what to do next.

There’s still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them

Thousands of Good Reasons to Buy A Home, Right Now!

January 7, 2010
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While the nightly news and some newspapers continue to focus on the negative, now might be the best timing to buy a home that we have seen in many years. Don’t get caught saying I could of or should of, act now before it is too late or before the numerous incentives offered go away.

Median Home pricing in our area is nearing or has hit an all time low that we have not seen in many years. Affordable homes are selling and many buyers are taking advantage of the huge Tax Credits that are being offered through the end of April 2010. While previous Tax Credits were specifically for First Time Home Buyers there is now up to a $6500 Tax Credit for existing home owners who have been residing in their principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight and are purchasing a new home to be their principal residence (“repeat buyer”). For details of the Tax Credits that are being offered visit our website at www.cumortgagedivision.com or www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com. For First Time Homebuyers who make a binding offer that is accepted on a new home before 04/30/2010 they can receive up to an $8000 Tax Credit. If you owe nothing on your income tax return or normally receive a refund you still get the tax credit. For example if you are expecting a $500 refund you would get an $8500 refund instead.

With median home pricing being at or near an all time low in our area you could save thousands on the purchase price of your home. You can get a lot more home for you money right now. Homes that are selling for $250,000 at this time are larger and offer more than what you could have purchased for thousands more, just a few short years ago. The market is recovering and we may not ever see home pricing as affordable as it is today.

Interest Rates on mortgage loans are favorable at this time and have been near all time lows several times in the last 12 months. Interest rates reward those with good credit as well as a stable employment history and your down payment may be lower too. If you can take advantage of the low rates offered today you could save thousands in interest over the life of your loan and hundreds on your monthly payment. As an example, the payment on a $250,000 mortgage at 5.00% is $238 a month cheaper than a 30 Year Fixed mortgage loan at 6.50%. And, if you were able to secure a 30 year fixed rate mortgage for $250,000 at 5.00% rather than 6.500% it would save you over $85,000 in interest over the life of your 30 year loan. Why not take advantage of today’s low interest rates and purchase the home of your dreams, your first home or downsize into a more comfortable easily maintainable home while the market is in your favor? Remember interest rates change daily and can go up at any time.

As a member of O Bee Credit Union you can participate in the Home Benefits Plus Program which is a Realtor Referral Service which utilizes local professionals and earns you a 25% rebate of their commission at closing or after. By utilizing one of the professional Realtors who participate in the Home Benefits Plus Program you could earn a sizeable rebate. For example, on a $250,000 home you could earn up to an $ 1875 rebate, at closing, for simply just participating in and using a Realtor from the Home Benefits Plus Program. For details visit www.obee.com or www.cumortgagedivision.com.

So as you can see right now is an opportunity to save thousands in interest on your new home loan, save thousands on the purchase price of your new home, earn up to a $8000 Tax Credit and earn a Rebate of Your Realtor’s commission at the closing of your new home. There really are “thousands of good reasons to buy a home, right now”.

Home Buyers Get A Green Light : Pending Home Sales Plunge In November

January 6, 2010
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Pending Home Sales November 2009

Just one month after touching a 3-year high, the National Association of Realtors® Pending Home Sales index plunged in November.  A “pending” home sale is a home that is under contract to sell, but has yet to close.

The 16 percent drop marks the first retreat in Pending Home Sales since January of last year.

The weak Pending Home Sales data is an indication that Existing Home Sales data will be soft this month. This is because, historically, 80 percent of Pending Home Sales convert to “closed sales” within 60 days, and most of the rest close within 120.

With Pending Home Sales down, the Pierce County housing market should lose some of its momentum.  For today’s home buyers, this kind of slack can represent a terrific opportunity.

Home prices are a function of supply and demand; of buyers and sellers. When buyers outnumber sellers, competition leads to bidding wars, ultimately, and higher home prices overall.  The imbalance can also create a sense of urgency that results in over-paying for a home.

When buyers are sparse, on the other hand, the psychology of real estate shifts. 

Home sellers are keenly aware of foot traffic and requests for second and third showings. Without buyers, their homes can’t sell.  They also note a lack of general feedback from the market.

It’s at this point that seller fear can creep in and it becomes a buyer’s best time to buy.

Based on November’s Pending Home Sales data, it’s clear that home sellers are in abundance right now.  Home buyers have leverage.

It may not last.

With mortgage rates easing lower this week, the federal home buyer tax credit still in effect, and the Holiday Season officially over, buyers are getting back to business in Lacey and everywhere. 

Plus, with the tax credit deadline of April 30, 2010 fast approaching, buyer activity should increase over the next 4-6 weeks.

The market looks ripe for a buy but don’t rush it.  Take your time and bid right. But when you’re ready, be ready — once the market momentum shifts back to sellers, you might lose all that leverage you built up through the winter.

Home Prices On The Rise, Says The October Home Price Index Report

December 30, 2009
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Home Price Index April 2007 to October 2009

More positive signals from housing — home values are still on the rise.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, after posting its first quarterly increase since 2007 this past September, the Home Price Index rose by another 0.6 percent in October.

Prices are up in 4 of the last six months.

But before we take the stats to the proverbial bank, it’s important that we recognize the Home Price Index for its shortcomings.

  1. HPI only accounts for homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
  2. HPI only accounts for re-sold homes — newly-built homes are excluded
  3. HPI aggregates national data whereas real estate markets are local phenomena

On a broad scale, the Home Price Index can be useful, but it doesn’t specifically apply to Olympia or any specific U.S. market.  For that, analysts tend to turn to the Case-Shiller Index, a privately-produced report that assesses home values in 20 cities nationwide.

The good news for home sellers in Thurston County is that Case-Shiller’s most recent report corroborates the government’s conclusion — home values are creeping back.

Home buyers should pay attention. When public and private sector data is in accord, markets tend to go along and, looking back, housing likely bottomed in February 2009.  Since then, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased in most U.S. markets.  Furthermore, so long as mortgage rates remain low and government stimulus is in place, the trend should continue through at least the first quarter of 2010.

If you’re on the fence about buying a home right now, or wondering about timing, consider your options vis-a-vis today’s market.  Into the new year, homes won’t likely be as cheap to buy, nor to finance.

Moving To A New City? Check The Local Cost Of Living First.

December 29, 2009
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New town, new costs. Try a Cost of Living Calculator.It’s not only the real estate markets that differ from town to town — the Cost of Living does, too.

Insurance costs, tax bills and just plain, day-to-day living will dent a household budget differently depending on where that household is.  It can be a nerve-wracking fact for families moving from Washington across county or city lines. The cost of utilities can vary from Seattle to Olympia….The cost of car and homeowner’s insurance can vary between Centralia and Olympia ask your insurance agent for details.

As an aid for the budget-aware, Bankrate.com keeps a Cost of Living Comparison Calculator on its website.  The calculator asks 3 questions: (1) Where do you live now, (2) To where you are moving, and (3) What is your salary.  It then spits out a detailed, 58-item cost comparison list between the two cities.

Some of the key costs compared include:

  • Everyday groceries
  • Energy bills
  • Routine healthcare
  • Home ownership
  • Clothes
  • Sporting goods

The Cost of Living Comparison Calculator is thorough, with data culled from the ACCRA. You’ll be surprised at how granular the list can get. On the ACCRA website, you can buy a similar report for $5.

On the Bankrate.com site, the data is free. Or ask your Realtor for information on the local utility providers and your local insurance agent to quote you an estimate of your annual insurance costs from one city vs. another.

There's A Very Good Reason Why The New Home Sales Data Plunged In November

December 24, 2009
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New Home Sales Nov 2008-Nov 2009One day after November’s Existing Home Sales report blew away estimates, the Census Bureau’s related New Homes Sales report failed to impress.

A “new home” is a home that is newly-constructed; not bought as a resale.

In a lackluster showing, New Home Sales dropped 11 percent in November, falling to the lowest levels since April. Furthermore, the all-important “months of supply” climbed by a half-month to 7.9.

The press pounced on the figures and if you only read the headlines, you’d think that housing had cratered.  Some of the angles were quite bold, even:

  • Weak U.S. Home Sales Show Recovery’s Shakiness (Reuters)
  • New Home Sales Plunge In November (CNNMoney.com)
  • Housing Forecast : Off Life Support, Still In Critical Care (CBS News)

These headlines, although technically accurate, only tell half the story, however. The other half relates to November 30′s role as the original First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit ending date.

See, different from home resales, when a contract is written on a newly-built home, the home is rarely finished.  This is the same in Washington as in any state.  According to the Census Bureau, just 1 in 4 new homes are sold “move-in ready”.  The other 3 of 4 are in various stages of construction when a buyer signs on the dotted line.

Some have yet to break ground, even.

Regardless, it’s at this date of signing that the Census Bureau counts the home as “sold” — not at the actual closing.  This is the main driver of the November New Home Sales data dip.

First-time home buyers in Tacoma would have risked up to $8,000 in federal tax credits if they bought a newly-built home and it wasn’t ready for move-in by November 30, 2009.  And it wasn’t until November 5 that the credit was officially extended.

Suddenly, first-timers representing more than half of last month’s Existing Home Sales isn’t so shocking. Buying new carried a lot risk.

There’s always more to the story than the headline.  Sometimes, you have to dig deeper. Looking back over 10 months, the housing market is on a steady course of improvement. November’s New Home Sales data — although weak — is not terrible.

Despite what the papers might say.