Last week was a roller-coaster ride in the conforming mortgage market.  After opening the week by making new, all-time lows, markets reversed sharply on better-than-expected data in manufacturing and housing, and data from overseas.

Rates rose through Wednesday and Thursday, then Friday’s jobs report sent rates jumping.

Last week marked the first time that mortgage rates worsened 3 days in a row since late-April.

The combination of the jobs report not posting as poorly as predicted, and light volume because of Labor Day, pushed rates higher by as much as a quarter-percent in some markets.

On the week, conforming mortgage rates in Washington State were unchanged but, depending on when you locked, there was great disparity.  Tuesday’s rates were much better than Friday’s.

Meanwhile, this week, with little data due for release, mortgage rates should remain unpredictable, moving as a result of momentum and outside influence. It makes for dangerous times for rate shoppers.  Mortgage rates may fall, but, then again, they might rise, too.

Keep in mind that markets are in the midst of a 19-week rally and rates can’t fall forever. Mortgage bonds are likely overbought so when the selling begins, pricing should worsen quickly.  This will cause mortgage rates to spike.

Therefore, if you’ve been shopping for a mortgage or are just wondering if the time is right to refinance, call your loan officer and work the numbers together. Refinancing won’t make sense for everyone, but it may make sense for you.

Mortgage rates are still exceptionally low.

The tightening in mortgage-lending policies that characterized the last 3 years appears to be slowing.

According to the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, roughly 1 in 10 lenders added mortgage qualification hurdles between April and June. It’s a huge departure from just 2 years ago when the mortgage industry was facing its first wave of challenges. 

During that period, eight in 10 lenders added hurdles.

For mortgage applicants in Lacey , this quarter’s Fed survey results signals that mortgage lending may have reached its limits of new monthly restrictions.

Since 2007, mortgage guidelines have become increasingly restrictive. There’s extra scrutiny on assets and tax returns; employment history is given more weight; loan purpose matters.  There’s a bevy of traits that can stand between you and an approval that didn’t exist a few years ago.

That said, lots of homeowners are still getting loans.

Verifiable income, good credit scores and equity are the “magic formula” and banks want to lend to good credit risks. And the best news for those that qualify is that mortgage rates are fantastic right now.

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates are as low as they’ve been in history.

So, if you’re among the many wondering if now is the right time to buy a home — or refinance one — remember that, although mortgage guidelines likely won’t get worse, mortgage rates probably will.

Mortgage markets worsened last week, putting a pause on the mortgage rate rally that dates to mid-April. Mortgage rates rose across Washington State last week and home affordability suffered.

The Refi Boom remains in full effect, but rates are not as dazzling as they were a week ago.

It’s somewhat strange that mortgage rates rose last week given the heavy dose of negative-bending news.

• The Federal Reserve noted that the economy “has slowed“
• New unemployment claims rose to a 6-month high
• Retail sales — excluding auto sales — rose less than expected

Mortgage rates often to fall on such news, but last week, they rose. The biggest reason was weak demand on a new 30-year bond issuance from the government. In turn, that weakness spilled over into mortgage bonds, which pushed rates up. 

This week, mortgage rates could rise or fall — it depends on how new data influences market sentiment.

• Monday :  Home builder confidence survey
• Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits; Producer Price Index
• Thursday : Jobless claims; 2 Fed members make speeches

Keep a close eye on the housing-related data early in the week. It’s widely believed that housing will lead the economy forward so a rebound in home builder confidence, or a jump in building permits, for example, should push rates even higher. Weakness

In the meanwhile, if you haven’t spoken with your loan officer about a refinance, consider reaching out this week. Rates are lower than they’ve ever been in history and more people are getting financing than the news would have you believe. You can’t know until you ask so make that call today.

No doubt you’ve heard that mortgage rates are low. They’re lower than they’ve ever been in history.  The news is everywhere.

Just check out some of these headlines from the last 24 hours:

• Mortgage rates set new lows for the 6th straight week (Reuters)
• Mortgage rates fall again; 30-year fixed at 4.54% (Wall Street Journal)
• Mortgage rates hit another low : 4.54% (NPR)

Fixed mortgage rates are now down more than 1/2 percent from the start of the year, and 3/4 percent from just 1 year ago. The drop has dramatically improved home affordability for home buyers in Lacey while creating refinance opportunities for existing homeowners.

From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now cheaper by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus July 2009.

A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage, therefore, is saving $45,295.20 over 30 years.

Low mortgage rates rarely last long and rates appear to have troughed. After a big downhill between April and July, they’re now flat. This could mean rates have finished falling, or that they’re gearing up for another drop lower. Either way, if you haven’t talked to your real estate agent about home affordability, or your loan officer about refinancing, it may be time to make that call.

If today’s market marks the end of low rates, rates are expected to rise quickly.

Starting sometime later this year, the monthly cost to carry an FHA-insured mortgage is expected to rise.

In a near-unanimous vote, the House of Representatives gave the FHA power to raise the monthly mortgage insurance premiums it charges to its borrowers.

Currently, monthly mortgage insurance premiums are 0.55% of the unpaid loan balance, divided by 12.  The recently approved Federal Housing Administration Reform Act provides for an increase in monthly premium of up to 1.55 percent, among other details of the bill.

Despite the ability to charge 1.55 percent, FHA officials say an increase to 0.90 percent would be sufficient to self-insure its loans.

In everyday terms, assuming a $200,000 mortgage, the math to a homeowner looks as follows:

• Current Premium (0.55%) : $91.67 monthly mortgage insurance premium
• Expected Increase (0.90%) : $150.00 monthly mortgage insurance premium
• Maximum Increase (1.55%) : $258.33 monthly mortgage insurance premium

A increase in monthly mortgage insurance premiums will reduce home affordability for buyers in Lacey and strain household budgets. 

The news isn’t all terrible, however.

Because higher monthly insurance premiums are expected to pad the FHA coffers sufficiently, the FHA has said it plans to reduce its upfront mortgage insurance premium paid at closing from 2.25 percent down to 1.000 percent. 

On the same $200,000 mortgage, a move like that would reduces closing costs by $2,500.

The bill awaits companion legislation in Senate and final approval into law, but considering the House’s lopsided vote Thursday, it could happen rather quickly.  If you’re planning to buy or refinance a home using an FHA mortgage, you may find that waiting to take the next step could be a costly one, long-term.

The FHA insured close to a quarter of all mortgages made in the first three months of 2010.

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. 

The release is more commonly called “the jobs report” — a major factor in mortgage rates and monthly payments.

Especially now.

With the recession officially over and growth returning to the U.S. economy, the recovery’s next frontier is jobs. As job growth increases, home affordability should take a hit.  Here’s why:

1. As the number of working Americans increases, so should total consumer spending
2. As consumer spending increases, so should a return to risk-taking on Wall Street
3. As risk-taking returns to Wall Street, bond markets should start to lose

Mortgage rates, therefore, should rise.

Furthermore, as the jobs market stabilizes and recovers, renters should be more apt to buy their first home, and homeowners should be apt to up-size.  More home buyers in Tumwater means more competition for homes and higher home prices typically follow.

Job growth can be trickle-up for housing.

Today, however, the jobs data was not so strong. According to the government, 431,000 jobs were created in May, but of those new jobs, 95.4% represented temporary staffing for the 2010 Census.  The number of private-sector jobs created fell well short of expectations and Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now.  Mortgage bonds are gaining so, therefore, rates are falling.

The May 2010 jobs report may not reflect well on the economy, but home affordability in Washington State and around the country is improving because of it.

Another week, same old story. 

Mortgage markets improved again last week on worsening news out of Greece and the Eurozone. Then, as contagion mentality set in, U.S. mortgage bonds gained and mortgage rates fell.

It’s the 4th straight week in which conforming mortgage rates in Washington State improved and, against the expectations of experts everywhere, it’s now late-May and mortgage rates are as low as they’ve been all year.

If you’re a homeowner and haven’t looked at refinancing lately, it may be a good time to call your loan officer to hear your options. Especially because low rates can’t last forever.

The European market concerns are likely overblown and the U.S. economy continues to expand at a measured pace.

This week, housing and inflation data takes center stage.

• Monday : Existing Home Sales data
• Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index; Home Price Index
• Wednesday : New Home Sales data
• Thursday : GDP
• Friday : Personal Consumption Expenditures

Each of these data points has the power to move mortgage rates — especially because trading volume is expected to thin as the 3-day weekend nears. As volume drops on Wall Street, it will be harder to match buyers and sellers and, as a result, mortgage pricing will get (more) erratic.

Rates should be most stable at the start of the week. It may be the best time to lock a rate. Call CU Mortgage Division at (360) 539-4687 or visit www.williamatuning.com .

The biggest economic news this week was that the EU will provide a much larger aid package than previously announced. On Monday, this news caused investors to move funds to riskier assets and out of safer investments such as bonds. This week’s economic data contained few surprises. Later in the week, successful results for the long-term Treasury auctions helped bond markets, and mortgage rates ended the week near the lowest levels of the year.

Monday, the EU and the IMF surprised investors with the announcement that they will make available up to $1 trillion to support Greece and other EU members which are experiencing economic troubles. This enormous amount of aid demonstrates the commitment of the stronger European countries to maintaining the European Union and allowing the weaker countries time to recover. The Euro currency strengthened against the dollar and other currencies, and global stock markets rallied strongly. Mortgage markets were hurt by the news when investors reversed the flight to safety trade and moved funds back into riskier assets such as stocks.

March Pending Home Sales increased 5.3% from February, and were 21% higher than one year ago at this time. The Pending Home Sales index, which measure sales of existing homes based on contracts which have been signed but not yet closed, is a leading indicator for the housing sector. The index provides guidance for future Existing Home Sales reports. The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggested that the home buyer tax credit has helped “stabilize the market”. Contracts had to be signed by the end of April to qualify for the tax credit, so many buyers rushed to take advantage before the deadline. As a result, the NAR chief economist expects “measurably lower sales” in May. The growth in housing sector activity will then depend largely on the performance of the economy and the labor market. The housing sector may also benefit from increased availability of jumbo mortgages and other forms of credit from non-governmental sources.

Call us at CU Mortgage Division for any information related to mortgage loans at (360) 539-4687 or visit our website at www.cumortgagedivision.com .

Mortgage markets improved last week on tame inflation data, a benign statement from the Federal Reserve, and ongoing credit problems in Greece.

The factors combined to drop conforming mortgage rates in Lacey to their lowest levels in 6 weeks.

It’s an unexpected development considering that mortgage rates were supposed to rise post March 31, 2010.  That was the day the Fed’s support for mortgage markets ended.

Since then, however, a month-long string of devastating economic and meteorological events within the Eurozone sparked a global flight-to-quality that benefited “safe” assets such as mortgage bonds.

May 2010 may not be so kind. Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock strength. The stock markets are starting the week in positive ground after Greece accepted a bailout package that should help stabilize the country’s financial system. The Dow is currently up 86 points while the Nasdaq has gained 14 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point over Friday’s morning pricing.

The week starts with news that Greece reached a $147 billion bailout agreement with the IMF Sunday. This is a plus for the Eurozone and mortgage market negative. Rates should rise on the bailout.

Also on Monday, the government releases Personal Consumptions and Expenditures data. 

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and it’s expected to show an annual read of 1.3 percent. Anything higher and rates should rise.

Then, for the rest of the week, employment data takes center stage.

• Wednesday : ADP releases its private sector employment data
• Thursday : The government releases initial jobless claims
• Friday : The government releases April’s job report

Jobs are key to the U.S. economic recovery, tied to consumer spending, consumer confidence, and mortgage delinquencies.  If job growth is better than expected, mortgage rates should rise.  If job growth is worse, rates should fall.

There’s no “best day” to lock this week so keep an eye on the market.  However, if rates in Washington State rise as quickly in May as they fell in April, you won’t have much time to act.

It appears that the stock markets may fall further, which should help boost bond prices throughout the day. I would not be surprised to see the major stock indexes move lower than current levels sometime today. If this is accurate, the bond market should benefit as investors seek safety from the volatility and I would not be surprised to see mortgage rates revise lower sometime this afternoon.

March’s Housing Starts was posted early this morning, showing that new construction starts rose 1.6% last month. This was a larger increase than was expected, giving us a sign of housing sector strength. However, this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets or mortgage rates and has not influenced this morning’s rates.

The second report of the day came from the University of Michigan who announced that their Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 69.5 this month. This was well below forecasts of a 75.0 reading, meaning that consumers felt much worse about their own financial situations than many had thought. That usually translates into consumers delaying making a large purchase and helps limit economic growth. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Next week is moderately busy in terms of relevant economic data being released. There are a couple of important reports scheduled, including a very important inflation index. Unlike most Monday’s there is data being posted Monday that may influence mortgage pricing. March’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be released late Monday morning. Look fo r more details on this report and the rest of next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010