Posts Tagged ‘ mortgage lender ’

Despite a weakening employment outlook for Americans, the economy flashed signs of a rebirth last week. It wasn’t enough to reverse the recent mortgage rate trend, however.

For the fourth week in a row, mortgage rates increased, if only slightly.

The biggest story of last week was the revelation that 2.5 million jobs have been lost since Labor Day. Strangely, this data may lead to two boosts toward a market recovery in the days ahead.

• Monday, the Senate is expected to vote on an $820 billion stimulus package
• Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Geithner is expected to outline a bank recovery program

Both of these events figure to be heavily influenced by the number of out-of-work Americans and the pressure to restore confidence in the U.S. economy. We learned last week that Americans have moved from spenders to savers, after all, and in the absence of consumer spending, an economy is hard-pressed to expand.

In other words, rising unemployment is putting pressure on Capitol Hill and Wall Street thinks the final government plan will be good for business.

This is one reason why the stock market added 2 percent Friday just hours after the worst jobs report in 34 years. Traders are ever-hopeful. What it means for mortgage rates is a little less clear.

Never mind the data released this week, mortgage rates will be most influenced by news out of Washington. In addition to the Stimulus Package vote and Geithner’s plan for the U.S. banks, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify Tuesday in front of the House Financial Services Committee.

In all, there’s a lot for mortgage bond traders in which to sink their teeth this week and most of it is concentrated on Monday and Tuesday. Expect high levels of volatility and rapid changes in rates.

Unfortunately, we can’t know if rates will be moving up or down so if you see a rate that fits your budget, consider locking it in with your loan officer. If rates rise, they’re expected to rise quickly.

Comparing July’s conforming mortgage rates to today’s average rates, there’s a 1.5 percent difference in favor of homeowners.

Rate drops like that make big differences in a household budget. Look at these before-and-after payments, based on rates from the chart:

$150,000 mortgage ($144 savings/month)

• July 2008: $958 monthly
• February 2009: $814 monthly

$250,000 mortgage ($240 savings/month)

• July 2008: $1,597 monthly
• February 2009: $1,357 monthly

$350,000 mortgage ($335 savings/month)

• July 2008: $2,235 monthly
• February 2009: $1,900 monthly

Of course, the other side of the story is that while mortgage rates fell in late-2008, the mandatory lender fees that accompanied them rose. That lessened some of the benefits of getting lower rates, but certainly not all of them.

According to recent housing data, buyers are back writing contracts and listed homes are selling quickly. Considering how mortgage rates have led monthly payments lower, maybe it shouldn’t be much of a surprise.

Consumer confidence reached an all-time low and 100,000 Americans were issued layoff notices last week, each playing a role in the mortgage market’s relative worsening.

For the third consecutive week, mortgage rates rose and average loan fees increased, too.

Amid all of the negative economic news, however, there were two bright spots worth identifying and discussing. They show that country may be closer to economic recovery than expected.

First, the supply of “used” homes for sale fell from 11 months to 9 months nationwide. This suggests that homebuyers are re-entering the housing market in force, a signal that home prices are nearing equilibrium.

And, second, the nation’s GDP — a measurement of the country’s complete economic footprint — didn’t fall by nearly as much as what the experts had predicted. A positive surprise like this makes us wonder about what else the Doomsday Economists may be wrong.

We won’t have to wonder long.

With this week comes copious amounts of data, legislation and rhetoric to influence mortgage rates. Some of the news-bites that mortgage markets will digest this week include:

• The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index report. PCE is a preferred inflation measurement and inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates. A high reading will pressure mortgage rates up.
• Retail stores report on same-store sales.
• The Pending Home Sales report. This notes the number of “homes under contract” and is a good gauge for buyer interest and the general health of housing.
• 20% of the S&P 500 firms will report earnings.
• Congress is expected to vote on the Stimulus package.

The biggest impact on rates, however, could come on Friday with the release of January’s jobs report. Employment data is always market-mover and with the press giving so much attention to layoffs lately, expect Wall Street to be extra jittery it.

Markets expect the economy to have lost a half-million jobs last month.

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its 2-day meeting today.

The monetary policy-setting group is expected leave the Fed Funds Rate within its current target range of 0.00-0.250 percent.

This is the lowest range for the Fed Funds Rate in history and, frankly, there isn’t much room left to go lower. Therefore, markets aren’t really concerned about what happens to the benchmark lending rate today.

Instead, markets will focus on the Fed’s ideas to revive the U.S. economy.

In its post-FOMC press release last month, the Federal Reserve pledged to “employ all available tools” to get the economy moving in the right direction. At the time, some of those tools were already in play, including making direct loans to large companies and buying bad debts from commercial bank balance sheets.

And since that meeting, the Fed has put its money where its press release is.

Early this year, the Fed started a program to buy $500 billion in mortgage-backed debt and those ongoing purchases are part of what’s keeping mortgage rates relatively low. The Fed has since made it easier for member banks to borrow money, too.

Each of these steps is meant to pour gas into the U.S. economic engine and the Fed is pledged to keep trying new approached until something works. And this is what mortgage markets will be concerned with today.

If the Fed’s next stimulus plan is deemed ineffective or too costly for its own good, mortgage markets will likely sell off, causing mortgage rates to rise. The jump could be somewhat sudden because Fed announcements are often met with emotional, knee-jerk reactions.

By contrast, if the Fed’s next steps are deemed on target, expect mortgage rates to fall only slightly. To some extent, this outcome is already priced into rates as of this morning.

The FOMC’s official press release hits at 2:15 PM ET.