Sales of newly-built homes surprised Wall Street, jumping 7 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 323,000 units last month.

In addition, the supply of new homes dropped to 6.5 months — a 2-month decrease from October 2010 and the best reading in a year.

The report runs counter to recent reports from the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Association of REALTORS® which suggest a looming housing slowdown. April’s New Home Sales report runs counter to that theory; it shows ongoing, steady, staggered improvement in terms of sales volume and sales inventory.

Broken-down by sales prices, the New Home Sales report also showed that homes are selling across all price tiers. The “luxury market” improved most:

• Up to $199,999 : +1,000 homes from March
• $200,000 to $399,999 : +2,000 homes from March
• $400,000 and over : +3,000 homes from March

These figures suggest that that move-up buyers — not first-timers — are driving the new home market. Homes under $200,000 now account for just 40% new home sales, down from 46% a year ago.

However, as with most months, it’s important that we recognize the New Home Sales data’s margin of error. Although New Home Sales showed a 7% improvement in April, the reported margin of error was ±17%. This means that the actual reading could have been as high as 24 percent, or as low as -10 percent.

It’s a huge range, and because it encompasses both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its April reading “zero confidence”. It’s right there in the footnotes.

For home buyers in our state , rising sales and falling supply may mean higher home prices. And, combined with the issuance of fewer building permits, supplies may be constrained into the summer months. This, too, would pressure home prices higher.

After posting an all-time low in February, New Home Sales rebounded strongly last month.

Based on joint research from the Census Bureau and HUD, 300,000 new, single-family homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in March. It’s an 11 percent improvement from February, and right in-line with the 6-month average.

The supply of available new homes improved, too, in March, falling by close to a full month.

At the current pace of sales, the entire new home housing stock would be sold in 7.3 months. This is the second-best reading in a year, a statistic partially-supported by the relatively small number of new homes on the market.

There are now just 183,000 new homes available for sale across Tumwater and the country. That’s the smallest reading since the Census Bureau started to keep New Home Sales records beginning in 1995.

However, it should be noted that the March New Home Sales data is suspect. The reading’s margin of error exceeds it actual measurement by almost double. It’s possible that sales volume fell in March instead of rising, therefore. The Census Bureau says as much in its footnotes:

The change [in new home sales] is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease [in March 2011].

We won’t know for certain until future data revisions are made.

If you’re a home buyer in King County , though, and want to stay ahead of the market, you won’t want to take chances. If the Census Bureau finds its data to be accurate after revisions are made, new home prices will already have started to rise.

You may get your best home value by buying sooner rather than later.

Sales of newly-built homes plunged 17 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 250,000 units in February, and the supply of new homes rose to 8.9 months in February — a 1.5 month jump from January.

It’s the lowest New Home Sales reading in recorded history, according to the Census Bureau, and the third straight report to signal that home values may be slow to rise in Lacey and nationwide this season.

Earlier this week, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Existing Home Sales down 10 percent from February, and the Federal Home Finance Agency said home values slipped 0.3 percent between December and January.

The media has picked up on the trend, too. 

• No Spring In Housing’s Step (WSJ)
• Is Housing Really In Recovery (CNBC)
• Experts See Weak Recovery (UPI)

There’s two interesting angles here. First, the one that’s largely neglected in the stories online.

Although New Home Sales read -17% last month, the data’s Margin of Error read ±19%. This means that, once additional homes are added to February’s New Home Sales tally, it’s possible that the reading actually rose 2%.

Because the Margin of Error exceeds the measured reading, February’s New Home Sales figures are of “zero confidence”. The Census Bureau even says as much in its report.

Or, if the initial reading is accurate, a second story emerges. Namely, how an increase in home supply may help this season’s buyers to negotiate better prices for a home, and upgrades from a builder.

There’s often more to a real estate story than its headline and February’s New Home Sales proves it.

Another day, another strong report for housing.

The Pending Home Sales Index climbed 2 percent in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. A “pending home sale” is an existing home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

Pending Home Sales are up for the fifth time in 6 months. The December reading is now its highest since the federal home buyer tax credit’s April 2010 contract deadline, and the figure is well north of the Pending Home Sales Index 3-year average.

Coupling this data with December’s strong Existing Homes Sales report (+12%) and its strong New Home Sales report (+17%), it’s clear that the housing market has past its trough and is in Recovery Mode.

Even consumer confidence is at an 8-month high.

On a regional basis, December’s Pending Home Sales Index varied as compared against November. The South region led the way, and the West region lagged.

• Northeast Region: +1.8%
• Midwest Region : +8.0%
• South Region : +11.5%
• West Region : -13.2%

Home buyers in areas such as Pierce County would do well to study last month’s Pending Home Sales Index. It offers clues of what to expect during the spring buying season. For example, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, 80 percent of homes under contract close within 60 days.

Therefore, we can look at the December Pending Home Sales Index and project, with a high level of confidence, that home sales will be higher throughout February and March on a units-basis.

Furthermore, because the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports show that housing stock is falling nationwide, spring buyers in Olympia will notice find more competition for the available housing stock. As the Supply-and-Demand curve shifts towards sellers, home prices rise.

In other words, there’s no rush to buy a home, but as the year progresses, home prices are expected to rise, as are mortgage rates. This one-two combination will impact home affordability negatively. And the higher that mortgage rates go, the worse the damage.

Your home-buying dollar won’t go as far in 2011′s second half as it will go right now. If you have plans to buy a home in 2011, consider moving up your time-frame.

For all your home loan needs call William Tuning at CU Mortgage Division at CU Mortgage Division in Lacey, WA at (360) 539-4687 or visit www.cumortgagedivision.com .

In the same week that the National Association of REALTORS reported home resales up 10 percent in September, the U.S. Census Bureau reported similarly strong results for the new construction market. 

After improving 1 percent in August, New Home Sales popped another 7 percent in September.

It’s no wonder homebuilder confidence is at a 5-month high.

• Sales volume is higher in 4 of the last 5 months
• New home supply is at a 5-month low
• Buyer foot traffic is on the rise

For home buyers , September’s New Home Sales data may foreshadow a shift in builder sales strategies and it’s something worth watching.

Recall that in April, the month that the federal homebuyer tax credit contract deadline passed for non-military citizens, sales of new homes was strong as buyers rushed to meet the April 30 cut-off date.

When the month ended, there were 216,000 new homes for sale — an inventory that would have taken 6 months to sell off in full, given April’s sales pace.

In May, however, the month after the tax credit deadline, buyers vanished. As a consequence, total units sold dropped 31 percent to their lowest level in recorded history. Coincidentally, at the end of May, there were still 216,000 units for sale.

By contrast, though, at May’s sale pace, the inventory would have needed nine months to sell out.

This is why builders are optimistic. The market for new construction is improving so buyers may have a harder time trying to negotiate for items like free upgrades or sales price reductions. So long as New Home Sales improve, home buyers may find themselves paying more money for less house.

Therefore, if you’re in the market for a newly-built home , you may want to move up your time frame. The longer you wait, the more it may cost you.

Existing Home Sales rebounded last month after a lackluster July. New Home Sales data, by contrast, did not.

After an upward revision to July’s data, New Home Sales remained unchanged at 288,000 units in August. It marks the second-lowest number of units sold in a month since 1963, the year government started its record-keeping.

At the current pace of sales, the newly-built home inventory would be depleted in 8.6 months.

The August New Home Sales was weaker-than-expected, but both Wall Street investors and Main Street economists are shrugging it off. The numbers were foreshadowed by weakening housing figures from earlier this summer.

For example:

1. Building Permits dropped between March and June
2. Housing Starts dropped between April and July
3. Homebuilder confidence continues to sag

Together, these three data points suggest that the market for new homes will be soft through at least this month.

With New Home Sales fading and colder months ahead, it may be an opportune time for home buyers in our area to look at new construction. Builders are eager to move inventory and the cost of materials remains low.

Buying “new” may never be cheaper — especially with mortgage rates as low as they are. The 0.750 percent drop in rates since January has shaved $188 off of a $200,000 mortgage’s monthly cost. That’s $2,250 per year in savings.

As home supplies dwindle and mortgage rates rise, finding “great deals” in new construction will undoubtedly get tougher. Take advantage of today’s market conditions, combined with builder pessimism. It may be the right combination at the right time to get that new home for cheap.

After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.

As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:

1. A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
2. A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home

There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.

June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest.  This is for several reasons.

First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.

In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.

Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months.  The last year has averaged 7.7 months.

For buyers of new homes in Olympia , this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive.  It’s the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.

Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.

The supply of newly-built homes for sales plummeted in April, a positive indicator for the Tumwater housing market as we head into the summer months.

It’s no wonder that homebuilders are breaking new ground at the fastest clip in 2 years. 

At the current sales pace, the nation’s complete supply of new homes would be sold in just 5 month’s time.  That’s more than double the pace of a year ago.

Also, as more good news, in terms of total housing units, the government reports that New Home Sales topped one half-million homes sold for the first time since May 2008.

It’s a similar spike as within the Existing Home Sales data released earlier this week.

But before we declare the housing market “repaired in full”, we have to consider a few of the reasons why home sales are charting so strongly.

The first reason is the federal homebuyer tax credit’s April 30 expiration. In order to claim up to $8,000 in tax credits, home buyers must have been in mutual contract for a property before May 1. There is no doubt this contributed to a run-up in sales, especially among first-time home buyers.

The second reason is that mortgage rates have remained exceptionally low, defying expert predictions.  Low rates don’t sell homes, but they do make monthly payments easier to manage for households torn between renting or buying.

And, lastly, March and April’s new home sales may have been buoyed by aggressive discounting on behalf of homebuilders.  As compared to February 2010, April’s average new home sale price was lower by 13 percent.  That’s a sharp drop in a short period of time.

For now, though, homes are selling, supplies are dropping, and buyer interest is high. It’s no wonder builder confidence is soaring.

The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.

Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:

• Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
• New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
• Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)

None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading.  The biggest reason why March’s New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it — February — was the worst in New Home Sales history.

In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history. 

A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date. 

Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.

Home buyers – first-timers and repeats alike — went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program.  The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.

Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.

The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low.  Along with stronger home demand, this should push Olympia home prices higher throughout the coming months.

It’s no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.

Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.

According to the Commerce Department’s report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.

This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.

Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true.  Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month.  However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:

1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
3. “Apartment Building” Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)

The press tends to lump all 3 together but that’s not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers. 

2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too.  Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country’s housing stock.

Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months. 

Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.

With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers in Olympia will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.